{"text_format":"1","workbook":"xlsx","n_sheets":4,"sheets":["About the Model","Instructions","Interactive Model","SpendoutRates"],"not_rendered":{"charts":0,"images":2,"macros":1,"external_links":0,"defined_names":13,"comments":0,"pivot_tables":0},"unopened":[],"bounds":{"document_bytes":16777216,"sheet_cells":100000,"rows_first":2000,"rows_last":500,"rows_between":2000,"halvings":0,"cell_chars":16384,"cell_head_chars":4096},"cells_cut":0,"cells_raw":0,"read":"whole","date_system":"1900"}

{"sheet":"About the Model","index":0,"n_rows":31,"n_cols":1,"rows_kept":31,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[6,0,6,10],[8,0,8,10],[10,0,10,10],[16,0,16,10],[12,0,12,10],[30,0,30,10],[16,14,16,22],[22,0,22,10],[24,0,24,10],[26,0,26,10],[28,0,28,10],[18,0,18,10],[20,0,20,10]]}
["This workbook supplements CBO’s February 2024 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034."]
["www.cbo.gov/publication/59710"]
[]
[]
["CBO’s Waterfall Model for Projecting Discretionary Spending, February 2024"]
[]
["This interactive waterfall model is a simplified version of a model used by CBO’s analysts to develop the agency’s baseline projections of discretionary spending, as well as cost estimates for legislation that authorizes discretionary spending. It is called a “waterfall” model because it allows the user to see how projections of outlays flow from each year’s estimated budget authority. This model is designed to illustrate the methodology CBO uses to project discretionary spending. The budget authority and outlay data generated by the model do not constitute a CBO estimate."]
[]
["Budget authority is provided by law to allow an agency to incur financial obligations that will result in future outlays (or cash disbursements). In CBO’s baseline projections, discretionary budget authority over the period covered by the baseline, typically 11 years, generally is projected by adjusting the appropriation provided for the current year to account for inflation projected for future years. In contrast, CBO’s cost estimates of spending subject to appropriation are based on amounts explicitly stated in legislation or estimated by CBO."]
[]
["The interactive model allows a user to choose whether to enter budget authority for each year or only for the current year of the projection period (in which case the model extrapolates future years’ budget authority by adjusting the current-year amount for inflation)."]
[]
["The inflation factors used in the model correspond to those in CBO’s February 2024 economic forecast. As specified by section 257 of the Balanced Budget and Deficit Control Act of 1985, CBO must use two main inflators in its projections of discretionary funding: "]
["•  The employment cost index (ECI) for wages and salaries of private-industry workers (called wages in the model), and"]
["•  The chain-weighted gross domestic product (GDP) price index for all other types of budgetary resources (for nonwages)."]
[]
["Inflation weights are used to adjust the application of inflation factors according to the share of budget authority that is allocated to federal wage and nonwage amounts for a given account. The amounts are cumulative, and by the end of the projection period, the effects of 10 years of inflation from the base year are shown."]
[]
["The interactive model allows users to choose from illustrative inflation weights, which adjust the proportion of budget authority to be inflated using the ECI or the GDP price index according to broad trends for similar budget activities. Alternatively, users could enter their own weights."]
[]
["Outlays consist of cash disbursements to pay federal obligations. For most discretionary spending, projected outlays are calculated by applying spendout rates—the rates at which the funds are actually disbursed—to budget authority. "]
[]
["How quickly budget authority translates to outlays varies significantly by the type of spending. Analysts usually construct individual rates for each account on the basis of historical patterns. For example, outlays for an agency’s salaries and administrative expenses generally occur fairly quickly; most of the budget authority is disbursed in the year for which funds are appropriated. Outlays for construction of infrastructure or weapon systems, by contrast, can occur over several years. In many cases, some portion of budget authority may be unobligated at the end of a period in which agencies may legally obligate funds; that unobligated budget authority typically reverts to the Treasury and thus does not result in outlays. "]
[]
["The interactive model allows users to choose from illustrative spendout rates that are not specific to a particular account but instead indicate broad trends among similar functions. Alternatively, users may enter their own rates. In no case can more than 100 percent of the budget authority be spent."]
[]
["Outlays from prior years’ budget authority are typically included in baseline projections but normally are not included in cost estimates, which focus on the potential effects of new authorizations. Analysts calculate outlays from the unspent balances of prior years’ budget authority, if applicable, using detailed information from the Treasury, including amounts of unspent budget authority in each account at the beginning of a fiscal year and the extent to which those amounts are obligated. "]
[]
["The interactive model allows users to enter outlays—if any—that stem from budget authority provided in prior years."]
[]
["CBO wants to hear about your experience using this interactive resource. Send your feedback to communications@cbo.gov."]

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["This workbook supplements CBO’s February 2024 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034."]
["www.cbo.gov/publication/59710"]
[]
[]
["***IMPORTANT: The budget authority and outlays generated by this model are illustrative and do not constitute a CBO estimate.***"]
[]
["Instructions for Using the Interactive Waterfall Model"]
["Make sure you have clicked “Enable Content” at the top of the worksheet to allow the model to run. "]
["If you see the message, “Microsoft has blocked macros from running because the source of the file is untrusted,” please follow these instructions:"]
["http://tinyurl.com/4d9w7scy"]
[]
["1. Using the dropdown menu on line 2, select the type of account you would like to model."]
["You may select from accounts that primarily fund salaries and expenses, grants, construction, or general discretionary expenses, or choose a custom option."]
["For any of the first four options, the model will prefill the entries with illustrative inflation weights and spendout rates that are broadly representative of the weights and rates used by CBO’s analysts for the various types of accounts."]
["The custom option allows you to specify the weight of the nonwage inflator and spendout rates. Spendout rates may not total more than 100 percent."]
[]
["2. Using the dropdown menu on line 15, select whether you would like the model to inflate the budget authority from the current year’s amount to produce the budget authority for subsequent years, or if you would like to specify the budget authority for each year."]
["Enter budget authority in the spaces provided on line 19."]
[]
["3. On line 21, if desired, enter outlays that stem from budget authority appropriated in prior years."]

{"sheet":"Interactive Model","index":2,"n_rows":36,"n_cols":18,"rows_kept":36,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[16,15,16,17],[35,2,35,13]]}
[]
[null,null,"Account Type"]
[null,null,"Inflation Rates",null,"Weights",2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034]
[]
[null,null,"Nonwages",null,0.4,1.0199694556873145,1.04011651329812,1.0599835914327085,1.0801407057775736,1.1008211725628965,1.1219895920847871,1.1437459282797975,1.1660328577637886,1.1889256049075254,1.2123585998049398]
[null,null,"Wages",null,{"$f":"1 - E5","v":0.6},1.0542376515880654,1.0966222221325121,1.1385044180401971,1.1808408433294397,1.223563665041099,1.2678321984422862,1.3137023673819284,1.3612321190338066,1.4104814971004498,1.4615127176655442]
[null,null,"Weighted Average",null,null,{"$f":"(F5 * E5) + (F6 * E6)","v":1.0405303732277651},{"$f":"(G5 * E5) + (G6 * E6)","v":1.0740199385987552},{"$f":"(H5 * E5) + (H6 * E6)","v":1.1070960873972018},{"$f":"(I5 * E5) + (I6 * E6)","v":1.1405607883086932},{"$f":"(J5 * E5) + (J6 * E6)","v":1.1744666680498179},{"$f":"(K5 * E5) + (K6 * E6)","v":1.2094951558992866},{"$f":"(L5 * E5) + (L6 * E6)","v":1.2457197917410761},{"$f":"(M5 * E5) + (M6 * E6)","v":1.2831524145257993},{"$f":"(N5 * E5) + (N6 * E6)","v":1.32185914022328},{"$f":"(O5 * E5) + (O6 * E6)","v":1.3618510705213025}]
[]
[]
[]
[null,null,"Spendout Rates"]
[null,null,"Year",null,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,null,"Unspent","Total"]
[null,null,"Current Year 2024",null,0.8,0.15,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,null,{"$f":"1 - SUM(E13:O13)","v":0},{"$f":"SUM(E13:O13) + Q13","v":1}]
[]
[null,null,"Budget Authority and Outlay Waterfall"]
[]
[null,null,null,null,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,"Total, 2024-2034"]
[]
[null,null,"Budget Authority (BA)",null,1000,{"$f":"E19*F7","v":1040.530373227765},{"$f":"E19*G7","v":1074.0199385987553},{"$f":"E19*H7","v":1107.0960873972017},{"$f":"E19*I7","v":1140.5607883086932},{"$f":"E19*J7","v":1174.4666680498178},{"$f":"E19*K7","v":1209.4951558992866},{"$f":"E19*L7","v":1245.7197917410761},{"$f":"E19*M7","v":1283.1524145257993},{"$f":"E19*N7","v":1321.8591402232801},{"$f":"E19*O7","v":1361.8510705213025},null,{"$f":"SUM(E19:O19)","v":12958.751428492977}]
[null,null,"Budget Authority (BA)",null,50,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"SUM(E20:O20)","v":50}]
[null,null,"Outlays from Pre-2024 BA"]
[]
[null,null,2024,null,{"$f":"$E$19*$E$13","v":800},{"$f":"$E$19*$F$13","v":150},{"$f":"$E$19*$G$13","v":50},{"$f":"$E$19*$H$13","v":0},{"$f":"$E$19*$I$13","v":0},{"$f":"$E$19*$J$13","v":0},{"$f":"$E$19*$K$13","v":0},{"$f":"$E$19*$L$13","v":0},{"$f":"$E$19*$M$13","v":0},{"$f":"$E$19*$N$13","v":0},{"$f":"$E$19*$O$13","v":0}]
[null,null,2025,null,null,{"$f":"$F$19*$E$13","v":832.42429858221203},{"$f":"$F$19*$F$13","v":156.07955598416476},{"$f":"$F$19*$G$13","v":52.026518661388252},{"$f":"$F$19*$H$13","v":0},{"$f":"$F$19*$I$13","v":0},{"$f":"$F$19*$J$13","v":0},{"$f":"$F$19*$K$13","v":0},{"$f":"$F$19*$L$13","v":0},{"$f":"$F$19*$M$13","v":0},{"$f":"$F$19*$N$13","v":0}]
[null,null,2026,null,null,null,{"$f":"$G$19*$E$13","v":859.21595087900425},{"$f":"$G$19*$F$13","v":161.10299078981328},{"$f":"$G$19*$G$13","v":53.700996929937766},{"$f":"$G$19*$H$13","v":0},{"$f":"$G$19*$I$13","v":0},{"$f":"$G$19*$J$13","v":0},{"$f":"$G$19*$K$13","v":0},{"$f":"$G$19*$L$13","v":0},{"$f":"$G$19*$M$13","v":0}]
[null,null,2027,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"$H$19*$E$13","v":885.67686991776145},{"$f":"$H$19*$F$13","v":166.06441310958024},{"$f":"$H$19*$G$13","v":55.354804369860091},{"$f":"$H$19*$H$13","v":0},{"$f":"$H$19*$I$13","v":0},{"$f":"$H$19*$J$13","v":0},{"$f":"$H$19*$K$13","v":0},{"$f":"$H$19*$L$13","v":0}]
[null,null,2028,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"$I$19*$E$13","v":912.4486306469546},{"$f":"$I$19*$F$13","v":171.08411824630397},{"$f":"$I$19*$G$13","v":57.028039415434662},{"$f":"$I$19*$H$13","v":0},{"$f":"$I$19*$I$13","v":0},{"$f":"$I$19*$J$13","v":0},{"$f":"$I$19*$K$13","v":0}]
[null,null,2029,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"$J$19*$E$13","v":939.57333443985431},{"$f":"$J$19*$F$13","v":176.17000020747267},{"$f":"$J$19*$G$13","v":58.723333402490894},{"$f":"$J$19*$H$13","v":0},{"$f":"$J$19*$I$13","v":0},{"$f":"$J$19*$J$13","v":0}]
[null,null,2030,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"$K$19*$E$13","v":967.59612471942933},{"$f":"$K$19*$F$13","v":181.42427338489298},{"$f":"$K$19*$G$13","v":60.474757794964333},{"$f":"$K$19*$H$13","v":0},{"$f":"$K$19*$I$13","v":0}]
[null,null,2031,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"$L$19*$E$13","v":996.57583339286089},{"$f":"$L$19*$F$13","v":186.8579687611614},{"$f":"$L$19*$G$13","v":62.285989587053805},{"$f":"$L$19*$H$13","v":0}]
[null,null,2032,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"$M$19*$E$13","v":1026.5219316206394},{"$f":"$M$19*$F$13","v":192.47286217886989},{"$f":"$M$19*$G$13","v":64.157620726289963}]
[null,null,2033,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"$N$19*$E$13","v":1057.4873121786241},{"$f":"$N$19*$F$13","v":198.27887103349201}]
[null,null,2034,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"$O$19*$E$13","v":1089.4808564170421}]
[null,null,"Total Outlays",null,{"$f":"SUM(E21:E33)","v":800},{"$f":"SUM(F21:F33)","v":982.42429858221203},{"$f":"SUM(G21:G33)","v":1065.2955068631691},1098.806379368963,1132.2140406864726,1166.0122570560184,1200.7941643423367,1236.7234401802448,1273.854658176765,1312.2461639445478,1351.9173481768241,null,{"$f":"SUM(E34:O34)","v":12620.288257377553}]
[]
[null,null,"The inflation factors used in this model underlie CBO’s February 2024 baseline budget projections."]

{"sheet":"SpendoutRates","index":3,"n_rows":10,"n_cols":2,"rows_kept":10,"cut":false,"hidden":true,"merged":[]}
["NAME","SpendoutTypes"]
["Salaries and Expenses"]
["Grants"]
["Construction"]
["General Discretionary"]
["Custom (user enters inflation weights and spendout rates)"]
[]
["NAME","BATypes"]
["Enter BA for Current Year (model fills in subsequent years)"]
["Enter BA for all years"]