On Monday I participated in two panels at the Milken Institutes Global Conference in Los Angeles. I was honored to be invited, and I enjoyed the spirited and insightful discussions. You can view my slides and a webcast.
The first panel addressed the topic U.S. Overview: When Will Growth Resume? My comments stressed four points:
The current outbreak of swine flu in the United States, Mexico, and other countries has raised concerns among policymakers and public health experts about the possibility of a pandemic and about the nations ability to blunt the effects of such an event.
At a meeting of the Social Security Advisory Board, on April 21st, CBO staff presented four charts comparing our March 2008 and March 2009 projections of the income and spending of the Social Security trust funds. Those baseline projections cover 10 years and assume no changes in current law. (This summer, CBO will issue new projections of the long-term budget outlook, spanning 75 years.)
The 111th Congress is taking up the issue of addressing the risks associated with climate change, a task that would entail the regulation of emissions of a variety of greenhouse gases from a variety of sources. The Environmental Protection Agency estimates that, in 2006, households and businesses in the United States emitted nearly 7.1 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent of greenhouse gases. Those emissions were partially offset by the net absorption of roughly 900 million metric tons of carbon dioxide by the nations forests and soils.
CBO has a panel of economic advisers that includes many distinguished economists (some of whom are former CBO directors). We host periodic meetings of the advisers at our office and solicit the advisers views between meetings via email exchanges and phone calls. Through these interactions, we benefit from the advisers understanding of cutting-edge research, current economic conditions and the economic outlook, and the budget and economic policy process. As a result of the advisers comments, the quality of CBOs economic analysis is greatly enhanced. The advisers for 2009 are:
In yesterdays blog,I discussed CBOs projection that the recent decline in consumer prices and low expected inflation during the next few years will mean no COLAs in Social Security benefits until 2013.A zero Social Security COLA would havesignificant implications for the premiums charged to enrollees in Medicare Part B.
The Social Security Administration (SSA) generally adjusts benefits payable each January based on the annual change in the consumer price index for urban wage earners (CPI-W) through the third quarter of the previous calendar year. (More information about the CPI is available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics <http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm>.) The index is based on a starting point of 100 for the 1982-1984 period.
Yesterday I gave a lecture in the introductory economics course at Harvard University. I was the head sectionleader of this courseknown as Ec 10when I was an assistant professor at Harvard about 20 years ago. The full professor in charge of the course at that time was Martin Feldstein, who had been the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Reagan (and was one of my dissertation advisers). The professor in charge of the course today is Greg Mankiw, who was chairman of the CEA under President George W. Bush (and also was one of my dissertation advisers).
CBO has a panel of health advisers consisting of widely recognized experts in health policy. Members of the panel have a variety of backgrounds, areas of knowledge, and experience. We host periodic meetings of the advisers at our office and solicit their views between meetings via e-mail exchanges and conference calls. Through these interactions, we benefit from the advisers understanding of cutting-edge research and the latest developments in health care delivery and financing. As a result, the quality of CBO's analysis of health policy is greatly enhanced.
