Today CBO released an evaluation of the accuracy of its economic forecasts by comparing those forecasts with the economys actual performance and with the projections of other forecasters. The study examines the two-year ahead forecast accuracy and the five-year ahead forecast accuracy for a variety of macroeconomic variables, such as real GDP, inflation, and interest rates. Thirty-two CBO forecasts, those made early each year from 1976 to 2007, are included in the study.
July 2009
Today CBO released a letter that contains an estimate of the change in federal costs, adjusted for the cost of market risk, that might result from enactment of the Presidents proposal to prohibit new federal guarantees of student loans and to replace those guarantees with direct loans made by the Department of Education.
Today CBO released a letter responding to a request from the Ranking Members of four House committees for additional information about the effects of health insurance coverage specifications reflected in the Americas Affordable Health Choices Act, which was released by the House Committee on Ways and Means on July 14, 2009. (For regular readers of our analysis, it's been a busy weekend.)
Yesterday CBO released a letter to House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer analyzing some possible approaches for giving the President broad authority to make changes in the Medicare program. Under those approaches, any changes the President decided to implement would be based on recommendations from an advisory council and subject to Congressional disapproval.
In this years discussion of health reform, many people have put forth the goals of bending the curve of the federal budgetary commitment to health care, the federal budget deficit, or overall national health expenditures. Accordingly, Members of Congress are asking CBO to analyze the extent to which different health reform proposals meet these goals. Last month we wrote to Senator Conrad and Senator Gregg: CBO does not provide formal cost estimates beyond the 10-year budget window because the uncertainties are simply too great.
In the past few days, I've received many calls and e-mail messages from people around the country commenting on my participation in a meeting this past Monday at the White House. Most of these people expressed their concern about CBO's ability to carry out its responsibilities with its traditional independence and nonpartisanship. I appreciate the interest in CBO's work, so let me try to allay those fears.
This morning President Obama said that he had met with the Congressional Budget Office regarding cost savings in health reform legislation. A number of people have asked me what happened, so heres the story:
Yesterday CBO released a preliminary analysis, conducted with the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), of H.R. 3200, the Americas Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009, as introduced by several House committees on July 14. Earlier this week, CBO released a preliminary report on the health insurance coverage provisions of the bill; this latest report added analysis of the other provisions.
CBO released a study today that examines alternatives to current Navy and Coast Guard long-term procurement strategies for their small surface ships known as small combatants. As articulated in their respective long-term shipbuilding plans, the Navy and the Coast Guard intend to purchase a total of 83 small combatants. CBO estimates these purchases would cost more than $47 billion over the next 20 years.