July 1, 2003
Albert D. Metz
This paper develops a new method of forecasting growth in the deposits of financial institutions for use by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in projecting receipts and expenditures of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Below I present an approach to forecasting the various deposit categories and include an example of out-of-sample forecasting performance. I briefly discuss the limitations of the approach and the results of some alternatives, including issues of regime change and cointegration. In the end, I propose a simple linear regression relating deposit growth to growth in a larger money aggregate (M2) and interest rate spreads, despite some statistical concerns.