Cost Estimate for H.R. 1 As Amended and Passed by the House

January 30, 2009

CBO released an estimate of the budgetary impacts of H.R. 1, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, as amended and passed by the House of Representatives on January 28. Over the 2009-2019 period, CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 1 would increase budget deficits by about $820 billion.

CBOs estimate for H.R. 1 as passed by the House of Representatives is about $3.7 billion greater over the 2009-2019 period than the corresponding amount shown in CBOs January 26th cost estimate for the version of H.R. 1 that was introduced on that day. That difference is attributable to four provisions adopted by the House of Representatives. An amendment to increase funding for the Department of Transportations transit programs by $3 billion accounts for most of the added costs over the 2009-2019 period.

There are also some changes in the allocation of budgetary impact between revenue and outlays.CBO, in consultation with JCT, has concluded that the subsidy for health insurance assistance for the unemployed should be treated as an increase in outlays rather than a decrease in revenues. Although this treatment is different from that in the table provided in our estimate for H.R. 1 as introduced on January 26, the overall effect on the budget remains the same for each year. JCT has also adjusted its estimates of the mix of revenue losses and outlay increases associated with certain refundable tax credits; that change also has no effect on the budget totals for each year.

ESTIMATED BUDGETARY IMPACT OF H.R. 1, THE AMERICAN RECOVERY AND REINVESTMENT ACT OF 2009, AS PASSED BY THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ON JANUARY 28, 2009

By Fiscal Year, in Billions of Dollars

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2009-

2019

DIVISION AAPPROPRIATIONS a

Estimated Budget Authority

276.9

66.5

4.1

3.6

2.8

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

0.9

0.4

361.0

Estimated Outlays

29.0

115.9

106.2

54.2

27.1

13.4

7.0

3.0

1.6

0.9

0.4

358.8

DIVISION BDIRECT SPENDING b

Estimated Budget Authority

78.4

121.1

56.6

7.1

7.1

15.0

5.0

-4.5

-3.6

-2.0

-1.6

278.5

Estimated Outlays

78.1

120.5

57.3

7.3

7.1

15.0

5.0

-4.5

-3.6

-2.0

-1.6

278.5

DIVISION BREVENUES b

Estimated Revenues

-62.5

-119.7

-11.2

12.2

8.1

4.1

0.7

-1.7

-3.4

-4.2

-4.8

-182.3

NET IMPACT ON THE DEFICIT

Net Increase in the Deficit

169.6

356.1

174.6

49.3

26.1

24.4

11.3

0.3

1.4

3.0

3.5

819.5

Sources: Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT).

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.