Conference Agreement for H.R. 1 (the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009)

February 13, 2009

Over the past week CBO has released a number of products related to the stimulus efforts in Congress. On Wednesday, CBO released aletteron the macroeconomic impacts of H.R. 1that included year-by-year analysis of the economic effects of the stimulus legislation. (This analysis was based on an average of the effects of two versions of H.R. 1-- as passed by the House and as passed by the Senate. The economic effects of those two bills were projected to be broadly similar).Today, CBO released a cost estimate ofthe conference agreement for H.R. 1, as posted on the Web site of the House Committee on Rules.

CBO estimates that enacting the conference agreement for H.R. 1 would increase federal budget deficits by $185 billion over the remaining months of fiscal year 2009, by $399 billion in 2010, by $134 billion in 2011, and by $787 billion over the 2009-2019 period (combining both spending and revenue effects). The table belowsummarizes the estimated budgetary impacts of the conference agreement legislation.

TABLE 1.

SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED COST OF THE CONFERENCE AGREEMENT FOR H.R. 1, THE AMERICAN RECOVERY AND REINVESTMENT ACT OF 2009, AS POSTED ON THE WEB SITE OF THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON RULES

By Fiscal Year, in Billions of Dollars

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2009-

2019

DIVISION AAPPROPRIATIONS a

Estimated Budget Authority

288.7

7.1

4.6

3.6

2.5

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

0.5

0

311.2

Estimated Outlays

34.8

110.7

76.3

38.1

22.9

12.8

7.0

3.1

1.6

0.8

0.1

308.3

DIVISION AREVENUES

Estimated Revenues

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

-0.1

DIVISION BDIRECT SPENDING

Estimated Budget Authority

90.3

107.6

49.0

7.6

7.3

15.1

4.7

-4.7

-4.1

-1.9

-1.4

269.5

Estimated Outlays

85.3

108.6

49.9

8.1

7.4

15.1

4.7

-4.7

-4.1

-1.9

-1.4

267.0

DIVISION BREVENUES

Estimated Revenues

-64.8

-180.1

-8.2

10.0

2.7

5.5

7.1

5.8

5.1

5.0

0.1

-211.8

NET IMPACT ON THE DEFICIT

Net Increase or Decrease (-)

in the Deficit

184.9

399.4

134.4

36.1

27.6

22.4

4.7

-7.3

-7.5

-6.1

-1.4

787.2

a.

Most of the spending for Division A would stem from discretionary appropriations. The totals include about $29 billion in 2009-2019 changes to mandatory programs that are contained in Division A.

Notes: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. * = revenue reductions of less than $50 million.

Sources: Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation.