Monthly Budget Review

June 4, 2009

Today CBO released its Monthly Budget Review, reflecting an analysis of budget data through the end ofMay 2009. CBO estimates that the federal deficit so far this year is $984 billion$646billion more than the deficit recorded at the same point last year. That estimate includes outlays of about $130 billion for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, recorded on a net-present-value basis (adjusted for market risk). An additional $60 billion of the increase in outlays results from payments to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (reported on a cash basis by the Department of the Treasury). For the year to date, federal revenues are running about 18 percent below last year's receipts, whereas outlays are about 18 percent higher.

Interestingly, receipts in May were only about $3 billion (or 3 percent) lower than receipts in May 2008, CBO estimates. That decline would have been much greater but for the $32 billion in rebates paid to individual taxpayers in May 2008 in accordance with the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. Receipts for the first eight months of fiscal year 2009 were about 18 percent lower than in the same period last year.