Presentation to the National Association for Business Economics

February 24, 2014

I was very pleased to speak this morning to the National Association for Business Economics. My presentation addressed CBO's assessment of the outlook for the economy. I addressed five questions:

  • How will the labor market evolve?
  • How rapidly will potential output grow?
  • How rapidly will actual output grow?
  • What will be the paths of inflation, interest rates, and the labor share of income?
  • What is the resulting budget outlook?

My presentation was based largely on two reports that CBO issued at the beginning of February: The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024 and The Slow Recovery of the Labor Market.