Presentation by Robert Shackleton, an analyst in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the NABE Foundation's 14th Annual Economic Measurement Seminar.
CBO regularly publishes economic projections that are consistent with current law—providing a basis for its estimates of federal revenues, outlays, deficits, and debt. A key element in CBO’s projections is its forecast of potential (maximum sustainable) output, which is based mainly on estimates of the potential labor force, the flow of services from the capital stock, and potential total factor productivity in the nonfarm business sector. This presentation describes CBO’s most recent 10-year economic projections and the methods used to produce them. It also describes how economic developments since the financial crisis and the recession of 2007–2009 have led CBO to revise its projections of productivity and growth in potential output and discusses ways in which the agency is working to improve its methods.