Tonight I spoke about CBO’s latest 10-year budget and economic projections in a presentation before the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee.
I talked about many of the same issues that I discussed last month in a presentation at PwC. Economic output grew by 2½ percent in 2018 and is expected to grow by more than 2 percent this year, continuing to support strong labor market conditions that feature low unemployment and rising wages. After 2019, economic growth is projected to average 1.8 percent per year, which is less than the historical average.
Under current law, budget deficits are projected to average $1.2 trillion a year between 2020 and 2029, boosting debt held by the public to 95 percent of gross domestic product in that year—its highest level since just after World War II. In remarks last month at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s annual dinner, I talked about the risks stemming from such debt and about the issues facing lawmakers, and I spoke about those topics again in my remarks tonight.
Phillip L. Swagel is CBO’s Director.