Working and Technical Papers

Working papers, formerly termed technical papers, are preliminary and are circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. These papers are not subject to CBO's formal review and editing processes. The analysis and conclusions expressed are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as those of the Congressional Budget Office. Any reference to these papers in other publications should be cleared with the authors. Later versions of the papers may have been published in a professional journal or elsewhere.

2009

• Working Paper 2009-04: Using DSGE Models
  October 2009  pdf  
  Jonathan Huntley and Eric Miller
• Working Paper 2009-03: The CBO Infinite-Horizon Model with Idiosyncratic Uncertainty and Borrowing Constraints
  October 2009  pdf  
  Maria I. Marika Santoro
• Working Paper 2009-02: An Evaluation of CBO Forecasts
  August 2009  pdf  
  Jon Huntley and Eric Miller
• Working Paper 2009-01: Identifying Rates of Emigration in the United States Using Administrative Earnings Records
  March 2009  pdf  
  Jonathan A. Schwabish

2008

• Working Paper 2008-11: Panel Data Techniques and the Elasticity of Taxable Income
  December 2008  pdf  
  Seth H. Giertz
• Working Paper 2008-10: Taxation and Asset Pricing in a Production Economy
  November 2008  pdf  
  Maria I. Marika Santoro and Chao D. Wei
• Working Paper 2008-09: Financing Losses from Catastrophic Risks
  November 2008  pdf  
  Kent Smetters and David Torregrosa
• Working Paper 2008-08: Taxable Income Responses to 1990s Tax Acts: Further Explorations
  September 2008  pdf  
  Seth H. Giertz
• Working Paper 2008-07: The Labor Supply Response in Macroeconomic Models
  September 2008  pdf  
  Juan M. Contreras and Sven H. Sinclair
• Working Paper 2008-06: Reestimating the Phillips Curve and the NAIRU
  August 2008  pdf  
  Robert Arnold
• Working Paper 2008-05: An Assessment of CES and Cobb-Douglas Production Functions
  June 2008  pdf  
  Eric Miller
• Working Paper 2008-04: Have People Delayed Claiming Retirement Benefits? Responses to Changes in Social Security Rules
  May 2008  pdf  
  Jae Song and Joyce Manchester
• Working Paper 2008-03: The Impact of Progressive Dividend Taxation on Investment Decisions
  April 2008  pdf  
  Maria I. Marika Santoro and Chao D. Wei
• Working Paper 2008-02: China's Approach to Capital Flows Since 1978
  April 2008  pdf  
  Juann H. Hung
• Working Paper 2008-01: A Sensitivity Analysis of the Elasticity of Taxable Income
  January 2008  pdf  
  Seth H. Giertz
  Related:
  • Working Paper 2005-01: A Sensitivity Analysis of the Elasticity of Taxable Income
    February 2005  pdf  

2007

• Working Paper 2007-13: The Fair Value of the Federal Deposit Insurance Guarantee
  November 2007  pdf  
  Judy Ruud
• Working Paper 2007-12: Does Experience Make Better Doctors? Evidence from LASIK Eye Surgeries
  August 2007  pdf  
  Juan M. Contreras, Beomsoo Kim, and Ignez M. Tristao
• Working Paper 2007-11: The Empirical Relationship Between Lifetime Earnings and Mortality
  August 2007  pdf  
  Julian P. Cristia
• Working Paper 2007-10: Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Mercantilism
  July 2007  pdf  
  C. Bora Durdu, Enrique G. Mendoza, and Marco Terrones
• Working Paper 2007-09: Guaranteed Versus Direct Lending: The Case of Student Loans
  June 2007  pdf  
  Deborah Lucas and Damien Moore
• Working Paper 2007-08: Health Insurance, Pensions, and Paid Leave: Access to Health Insurance at Small Firms in a Broader Benefit Context
  June 2007  pdf  
  Jean Marie Abraham, Thomas DeLeire, and Annne Beeson Royalty
• Working Paper 2007-07: Output, Investment, and Growth in a World of Putty-Clay
  May 2007  pdf  
  Mark Lasky
• Working Paper 2007-06: The Natural Rate of Unemployment
  April 2007  pdf  
  David Brauer
• Working Paper 2007-05: The Student Loan Consolidation Option: An Analysis of an Exotic Financial Derivative
  April 2007  pdf  
  Deborah Lucas and Damien Moore
• Working Paper 2007-04: Assessing the Relationship between Economic Stability and Dynamic Employment Responses to Aggregate Shocks
  March 2007  pdf  
  Naomi N. Griffin
• Working Paper 2007-03: Measurement Error in the SIPP: Evidence from Matched Administrative Records
  January 2007  pdf  
  Julian Cristia and Jonathan A. Schwabish
• Working Paper 2007-02: Economic Flexibility in Microsimulation: An Age-Centered Regression Approach
  January 2007  pdf  
  John Sabelhaus and Lina Walker
• Working Paper 2007-01: Occupational Employment Risk and its Consequences for Unemployment Duration and Wages
  January 2007  pdf  
  Ignez M. Tristao

2006

• Working Paper 2006-14: Trends in High Incomes and Behavioral Responses to Taxation: Evidence from Executive Compensation and Statistics of Income Data
  December 2006  pdf  
  Nada O. Eissa and Seth H. Giertz
• Working Paper 2006-13: An Empirical Model of Factor Adjustment Dynamics
  November 2006  pdf  
  Juan M. Contreras
• Working Paper 2006-12: Quantitative Implications of Indexed Bonds in Small Open Economies
  November 2006  pdf  
  C. Bora Durdu
• Working Paper 2006-11: The Effect of a First Child on Female Labor Supply: Evidence from Women Seeking Fertility Services
  October 2006  pdf  
  Julian P. Cristia
• Working Paper 2006-10: Private Savings, Medicaid and Uncertain Nursing Home Expenses
  August 2006  pdf  
  Lina Walker
• Working Paper 2006-09: International Burdens of the Corporate Income Tax
  August 2006  pdf  
  William C. Randolph
• Working Paper 2006-08: The Slowdown in Medicare Spending Growth
  July 2006  pdf  
  Chapin White
• Working Paper 2006-07: Implications of Past Currency Crises for the U.S. Current Account Adjustment
  June 2006  pdf  
  Juann H. Hung and Young Jin Kim
• Working Paper 2006-06: Earnings Inequality and High Earners: Changes During and after the Stock Market Boom of the 1990s
  April 2006  pdf  
  Jonathan A. Schwabish
• Working Paper 2006-05: Uncertain Policy for an Uncertain World: The Case of Social Security
  March 2006  pdf  
  John Sabelhaus and Julie Topoleski
• Working Paper 2006-04: A Steady-State Analysis of Proposals to Reduce the Tax on Saving
  February 2006  pdf  
  Paul Burnham
• Working Paper 2006-03: The Elasticity of Taxable Income During the 1990s: A Sensitivity Analysis
  February 2006  pdf  
  Seth H. Giertz
• Working Paper 2006-02: Reallocation and Productivity Growth in Japan: Revisiting the Lost Decade of the 1990s
  January 2006  pdf  
  Naomi N. Griffin and Kazuhiko Odaki
• Working Paper 2006-01: Early Announcement of a Public Pension Reform in Italy
  January 2006  pdf  
  Maria I. Marika Santoro

2005

• Working Paper 2005-11: Are Married Women Secondary Workers? The Evolution of Married Women's Labor Supply in the U.S. from 1983 to 2000
  December 2005  pdf  
• Working Paper 2005-10: Labor Adjustment, Productivity and Output Volatility: An Evaluation of Japan's Employment Adjustment Subsidy
  December 2005  pdf  
• Working Paper 2005-09: Median-voter Equilibria in the Neoclassical Growth Model under Aggregation
  December 2005  pdf  
• Working Paper 2005-08: Putty-Clay Capital and an Index of Capital per Hour
  June 2005  pdf  
• Working Paper 2005-07: Social Effects, Household Time Allocation, and the Decline in Union Formation
  May 2005  pdf  
• Working Paper 2005-06: Behavioral Effects of Social Security Reform in a Dynamic Micro-Simulation with Life-Cycle Agents
  May 2005  pdf  
• Working Paper 2005-05: How Does Differential Mortality Affect Social Security Finances and Progressivity?
  May 2005  pdf  
• Working Paper 2005-04: Does Social Security Privatization Produce Efficiency Gains?
  April 2005  pdf  
• Working Paper 2005-03: Testing Alternative Methods for Forecasting Capital Gains
  March 2005  pdf  
• Working Paper 2005-02: Limited Participation, Income Distribution and Capital-Account Liberalization
  March 2005  pdf  
• Working Paper 2005-01: A Sensitivity Analysis of the Elasticity of Taxable Income
  February 2005  pdf  

2004

• Technical Paper 2004-17: Return on Cross-Border Investment: Why Does U.S. Investment Abroad Do Better?
  December 2004  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2004-16: Recent Literature on Taxable-Income Elasticities
  December 2004  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2004-15: A Model to Project Flows into and out of Tax-Deferred Retirement Savings Accounts
  October 2004  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2004-14: Estimating and Forecasting Capital Gains with Quarterly Models
  September 2004  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2004-13: Uncertainty About Projections of Medicare Cost Growth
  August 2004  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2004-12: Valuing Federal Loans and Loan Guarantees Using Options-Pricing Methods
  August 2004  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2004-11: Macroeconomic Impacts of Stylized Tax Cuts in an Intertemporal Computable General Equilibrium Model
  August 2004  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2004-10: Large Foreign Markets and Export-Led Growth in Developing Countries
  August 2004  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2004-09: Health Shocks and the Demand for Annuities
  July 2004  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2004-08: Charitable Bequests and the Repeal of the Estate Tax
  July 2004  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2004-07: Macroeconomic Analysis of a 10 Percent Cut in Income Tax Rates
  May 2004  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2004-06: The Taxation of Distributions From Retirement Savings Plans
  April 2004  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2004-05: Using the Natural Rate Concept to Assess the Consistency of Projections Ten Years Ahead for Real Interest Rates and Inflation
  March 2004  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2004-04: The Role of Saving in Economic Growth When the Cost of New Human Capital Depends on the Cost of Labor
  February 2004  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2004-03: Analyzing an Aging Population--A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach
  February 2004  pdf  
  A description of the model used to analyze the macroeconomic effects of Social Security policy proposals.
• Technical Paper 2004-02: Incorporating Longevity Effects into Long-Term Medicare Projections
  January 2004  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2004-01: Overview of the Congressional Budget Office Long-Term (CBOLT) Policy Simulation Model
  January 2004  pdf  
  An overview of CBO's main Social Security model.

2003

• Technical Paper 2003-12: Analyzing Tax Policy Changes Using a Stochastic OLG Model with Heterogeneous Households
  December 2003  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2003-11: Factor Accumulation Without Diminishing Returns: The Case of East Asia
  December 2003  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2003-10: Using the Treasury Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Spread to Estimate Expected Long-Run Changes in the CPI-U under Inflation Uncertainty, Risk Aversion, and the Probability of Deflation
  November 2003  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2003-09: A Putty-Clay Model of Business Fixed Investment
  September 2003  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2003-08: Alternative Methods for Projecting Equity Returns: Implications for Evaluating Social Security Reform Proposals
  August 2003  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2003-07: The FHA Budget Subsidy Simulation System: A Dynamic Simulation Model of Budget Outcomes for FHA Single-Family Mortgage Insurance
  July 2003  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2003-06: Forecasting Deposit Growth: Forecasting BIF and SAIF Assessable and Insured Deposits
  July 2003  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2003-05: International Trade and U.S. Productivity
  June 2003  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2003-04: Modeling Long-Run Economic Growth
  June 2003  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2003-03: The Economic Costs of Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases: A Survey of Economic Models
  May 2003  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2003-02: Projecting Longitudinal Earnings Patterns for Long-Run Policy Analysis
  April 2003  pdf  
  A description of the method used in CBO's main Social Security model to project an individuals annual earnings.
• Technical Paper 2003-01: Testing for a Bequest Motive Using Cross-State Variation in Bequest Taxes
  April 2003  pdf  

2002

• Technical Paper 2002-6: Consumption Taxes and Economic Efficiency in a Stochastic OLG Economy
  December 2002  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2002-5: Modeling the U.S. Current Account as the Savings-Investment Balance
  December 2002  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2002-4: Ricardian Equivalence with Incomplete Household Risk Sharing
  November 2002  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2002-3: Mate Matching for Microsimulation Models
  November 2002  pdf  
  A description of the method used in CBO's main Social Security model to simulate who marries whom--which has important implications for projections of benefit levels.
• Technical Paper 2002-2: Projecting Longitudinal Marriage Patterns for Long-Run Policy Analysis
  October 2002  pdf  
  A description of the method used in CBO's main Social Security model to project an individual's marital status.
• Technical Paper 2002-1: Using Time-Series Models to Project Output Over the Medium Term
  September 2002  pdf  

2001

• Technical Paper 2001-1: Does International Asynchronization Matter for the U.S. Business Cycle?
  April 2001  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2001-2: The Effects of Federal Estate Tax Policy on Charitable Contributions
  March 2001  pdf  

2000

• Technical Paper 2000-8: Bequests, Inter Vivos Transfers, and Wealth Distribution
  December 2000  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2000-7: Measuring Time Preference and Parental Altruism
  October 2000  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2000-6: Family Status of Enlisted Personnel
  August 2000  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2000-5: Forecasting Capital Gains Realizations
  August 2000  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2000-4: Some Fresh Perspectives on Price-Support Policies
  July 2000  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2000-3: Predicting Turning Points
  May 2000  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2000-2: Social Security Options for Reducing Poverty Among Older Women
  May 2000  pdf  
• Technical Paper 2000-1: Generational Accounts for the United States: An Update
  February 2000  pdf  

1999

• Technical Paper 1999-8: Social Security Privatization: What Are the Issues?
  August 1999  pdf  
• Technical Paper 1999-7: Draft Framework for Determining the Spreads of Commercial Paper Rates and LIBOR to the Rate on Three Month Treasury Bills and the Volatility of those Interest Rates
  July 1999  pdf  
• Technical Paper 1999-3: Household Saving in the '90s: Evidence from Cross-Section Wealth Surveys
  May 1999  pdf  
• Technical Paper 1999-6: The Impact of Globalization on the U.S. Business Cycle
  April 1999  pdf  

1998

• Technical Paper 1998-4: Privatizing Social Security in the U.S.: Comparing the Options
  November 1998  pdf  
• Technical Paper 1999-5: Taxing Government in a National Retail Sales Tax
  October 1998  pdf  
• Technical Paper 1999-2: Equivalence Scales, the Income Distribution, and Federal Taxes
  October 1998  pdf  
• Technical Paper 1998-3: Opting Out of Social Security and Adverse Selection
  August 1998  pdf  
• Technical Paper 1998-2: Privatizing Versus Prefunding Social Security in a Stochastic Economy
  August 1998  pdf  
• Technical Paper 1998-1: Who Bears the Burden of the Corporate Tax (and Why)?: The Open Economy Case
  August 1998  pdf  
• Technical Paper 1999-1: Six Tax Laws Later: How Individuals' Marginal Federal Income Tax Rates Changed Between 1980 and 1995
  May 1998  pdf  
• Technical Paper 1999-4: The Effect of Tax-Deferred Savings Plans on Household Wealth Accumulation: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances
  March 1998  pdf  

1997

• Technical Paper 1997-6: Simulating U.S. Tax Reform
  September 1997  pdf  
• Technical Paper 1997-5: Privatizing Social Security While Limiting Adverse Selection in Annuities Markets
  August 1997  pdf  
• Technical Paper 1997-4: Understanding Adverse Selection in the Annuities Market and the Impact of Privatizing Social Security
  August 1997  pdf  
• Technical Paper 1997-2: Can the Standard Growth Model Explain the Post-War Decline in the Saving Rate?
  August 1997  pdf  
• Technical Paper 1997-1: Investing the Social Security Trust Fund in Equities: An Option Pricing Approach
  August 1997  pdf  
• Technical Paper 1997-3: Can Permanent-Income Theory Explain Cross-Section Consumption Patterns?
  July 1997  pdf  

1989

• Simulating the Revenue Effects of Changes in the Taxation of Capital Gains
  March 1989  pdf  
• Work and Welfare: The Family Support Act of 1988
  January 1989  pdf  
• Deficits and Interest Rates: Theoretical Issues and Simulation Results
  January 1989  pdf  

1988

• Environmental Federalism: Allocating Responsibilities for Environmental Protection
  September 1988  pdf  

1977

• Closing the Fiscal Policy Loop: A Long-Run Analysis
  December 1977  pdf  
• Estimating Outlays for the Interest on the Public Debt
  October 1977  pdf  
  Daniel L. Rubenson and James Capra
• Interpreting Early Warnings of Inflation: A Study of Statistical Indicators
  September 1977  pdf  
  Mary Kay Plantes and Frank de Leeuw
• An Econometric Model of Unemployment Insurance Tax Receipts
  August 1977  pdf  
  Marc P. Freiman
• Update to Five-Year Budget Projections: Fiscal Years 1978-1982
  July 1977  pdf  
• Financing Waterway Development: The User Charge Debate
  July 1977  pdf  
  Craig Roach
• Federal Financial Reporting: Accrual Accounting and the Budget
  June 1977  pdf  
  Ronald L. Teigen
• President Carter's Energy Proposals: A Perspective
  June 1977  pdf  
  R.C. Scheppach, R.D. Morgenstern, D.Kulash, L. Oppenheimer, R. Dowd, R.Brown, P. Karpoff, F. de Leeuw, J. O'Neill.
• 1977 Farm Legislation: An Analysis of Congressional and Administration Proposals
  June 1977  pdf  
  Jim Vertrees, Alan Walter, George Iden, Marilyn Moore
• Real Growth and Decline in Defense Operating Costs: Fiscal Year 1978
  June 1977  pdf  
  Patrick Renehan, Edward Swoboda, Julia Doherty
• The President's Fiscal Year 1978 Tax Expenditure Proposals
  April 1977  pdf  
  John Roth

1976

• Working Papers on Major Budget and Program Issues in Selected Health Programs
  December 1976  pdf