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In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.
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To assess the full costs of federal loans and loan guarantees, CBO has developed a method for estimating the present value of the lifetime administrative costs of certain federal credit programs.
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CBO estimates the costs of federal credit programs in 2024 in two ways—following procedures prescribed by the Federal Credit Reform Act and using a fair-value approach, which measures the market value of the government’s obligations.
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CBO has estimated what the economic and budgetary effects would be if the discretionary funding caps enacted in June 2023 had been those required under H.R. 2811, the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023.
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CBO’s updated projections show a federal budget deficit of $1.5 trillion for 2023. That estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty, though, in part because of a recent shortfall in tax revenues.
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CBO describes the commitments the federal government has made through its credit and insurance programs, including housing, real estate, and student loan programs, deposit insurance, insurance for private pensions, and flood and crop insurance.
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Implementing the Administration’s proposed rule for a new income-driven repayment plan would increase the government’s costs for federal student loans originated through 2033 by $230 billion, on a net-present-value basis, CBO estimates.
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In CBO’s projections, the federal deficit totals $1.4 trillion in 2023 and averages $2.0 trillion per year from 2024 to 2033. Real GDP growth comes to a halt in 2023 and then rebounds, averaging 2.4 percent from 2024 to 2027.
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CBO issues a volume describing 17 policy options that would each reduce the federal budget deficit by more than $300 billion over the next 10 years or, in the case of Social Security options, have a comparably large effect in later decades.
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CBO issues a volume that contains short descriptions of 59 policy options that would each reduce the federal budget deficit by less than $300 billion over the next 10 years.