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- Working Paper
This paper documents CBO’s model of potential output. It describes the data, analytic methods, and modeling framework used to estimate historical values of the components of potential output and to project those values into the future.
- Working Paper
This paper describes how CBO produces its semiannual economic forecast, including background analysis, preliminary forecasts, and internal and external review. It also describes the large-scale macro model used to produce the forecast.
- Working Paper
Private-sector forecasters consistently missed the decline in long-term interest rates over the past three decades. Forecasts based on the Treasury yield curve would not have done a better job anticipating the decline in long-term rates.
- Working Paper
This working paper describes the model that CBO used for its August 2016 projections of the financial condition of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation’s multiemployer program through 2036.
- Working Paper
In emerging market economies, governments issue debt denominated both in their own currency and in foreign currencies. This paper examines how the use of those two types of debt affects these economies.
- Working Paper
This working paper finds evidence for smaller short-term effects on output and employment from tax changes during times of higher unemployment.
- Working Paper
This paper describes an approach to modeling U.S. production of energy from shale resources and the outlook for that production. Production is insensitive to the price of oil in the short run but quite responsive within two to three years.
- Working Paper
This working paper analyzes five stylized changes in federal fiscal policy that would close a fiscal gap of 1.8 percent of GDP, and measures the costs that those policy changes would impose on different generations.
- Working Paper
This working paper describes the methods and calculations CBO used in its August 2015 baseline projections to estimate the effects of the Affordable Care Act on the labor market.
- Working Paper
Federal receipts and certain federal outlays regularly respond to cyclical movements in the economy. CBO released a working paper on how it estimates the size of those automatic stabilizers, for both past years and future years.