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- Working Paper
This paper documents CBO’s model of potential output. It describes the data, analytic methods, and modeling framework used to estimate historical values of the components of potential output and to project those values into the future.
- Working Paper
This paper describes how CBO produces its semiannual economic forecast, including background analysis, preliminary forecasts, and internal and external review. It also describes the large-scale macro model used to produce the forecast.
- Working Paper
This paper analyzes private insurers’ prices for physicians’ services. Commercial prices for those services are higher than Medicare fee-for-service prices; Medicare Advantage prices are very similar to Medicare fee-for-service prices.
- Working Paper
This paper provides an overview of the current state of measuring health care quality, and it uses the Medicare program to illustrate the key issues and challenges that arise in doing so.
- Working Paper
CBO’s new framework will use a new measure of income—income before transfers and taxes—to rank households and calculate average means-tested transfer rates and average federal tax rates.
- Working Paper
Does Medicare Advantage (MA) increase the risk scores used to adjust payments to MA plans? This paper explores the mechanisms contributing to the differences in risk scores between MA enrollees and fee-for-service beneficiaries.
- Working Paper
Private-sector forecasters consistently missed the decline in long-term interest rates over the past three decades. Forecasts based on the Treasury yield curve would not have done a better job anticipating the decline in long-term rates.
- Working Paper
Data from the Census Bureau linked to individual tax returns are used to obtain demographic and income characteristics of filers and nonfilers; results are compared with those obtained using statistical matches of publicly available data.
- Working Paper
This working paper projects the distribution of Medicare taxes and spending on the basis of administrative earnings data as well as demographic and economic projections from CBO’s long-term microsimulation model.
- Working Paper
This working paper describes the model that CBO used for its August 2016 projections of the financial condition of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation’s multiemployer program through 2036.