Long-Term Economic Analysis
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054
The federal budget deficit increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product over the next 30 years, in CBO’s projections, pushing federal debt held by the public far beyond any previously recorded level.
- Blog Post
CBO to Release Long-Term Budget Projections on March 20
CBO will publish "The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054" on March 20 at 2 p.m. The report will provide projections of federal spending, revenues, deficits, and debt for the next 30 years.
- Presentation
CBO’s 2023 Long-Term Budget Projections
Presentation by Molly Dahl, CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit Chief, at the American Enterprise Institute’s panel discussion “Methodologies in Fiscal, Economic, and Health Spending Projections.”
- Presentation
CBO’s Long-Term Projections of Labor Force Participation Rates
Presentation by Julie Topoleski, the director of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis Division, at the NBER’s Summer Institute 2023: Economics of Social Security.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.
- Report
The 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook
The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO's projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.
- Presentation
An Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, at an event hosted by the American Enterprise Institute.
- Presentation
An Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, to the National Economists Club.
- Blog Post
Presentations on CBO’s Updated Long-Term Projections
CBO Director Phillip Swagel discusses his upcoming presentations on CBO’s latest long-term budget projections and demographic outlook.
- Report
The 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook
The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook according to CBO's extended baseline projections, which show budget deficits and federal debt held by the public growing steadily in relation to gross domestic product over the next three decades.