Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Blog Post
Latest Presentations
CBO Director Phillip Swagel discusses his most recent presentations on the U.S. economic and fiscal outlook.
- Report
CBO’s Projections of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts: 2023 to 2033
This report presents CBO’s projections of revenues and outlays for the 2023–2033 period translated into the framework of the national income and product accounts and their categories of current receipts and expenditures.
- Report
Estimates of the Cost of Federal Credit Programs in 2024
CBO estimates the costs of federal credit programs in 2024 in two ways—following procedures prescribed by the Federal Credit Reform Act and using a fair-value approach, which measures the market value of the government’s obligations.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.
- Report
The Economic and Budgetary Effects of Discretionary Funding Caps as Specified in the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023
CBO has estimated what the economic and budgetary effects would be if the discretionary funding caps enacted in June 2023 had been those required under H.R. 2811, the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023.
- Report
CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2023 Update
CBO assesses its two-year and five-year economic forecasts and compares them with forecasts of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus, an average of about 50 private-sector forecasts.
- Report
The 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook
The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO's projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.
- Blog Post
CBO Issues Schedule for Release of Long-Term Budget Projections and Economic Update
CBO will release its long-term budget projections on June 28 and an update to its economic forecast for the next three years on July 31.
- Report
How the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 Affects CBO’s Projections of Federal Debt
Deficit reductions under the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 reduce projected federal debt in 2033 by about 3 percent, from $46.7 trillion (or 119 percent of gross domestic product, or GDP) to $45.2 trillion (or 115 percent of GDP).
- Report
Automatic Stabilizers in the Federal Budget: 2023 to 2033
CBO projects the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of deficits without them—from 2023 to 2033 and provides historical estimates of the stabilizers’ effects since 1973.