Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Report
Revisions to CBO's Projection of Potential Output Since 2007
CBO examines the change in its projections of potential output for the year 2017: The estimate for that year that CBO prepared in February 2014 is about 7 percent lower than what it projected in January 2007.
- Working Paper
The Long-Run Effects of Federal Budget Deficits on National Saving and Private Domestic Investment: Working Paper 2014-02
This paper reviews CBO’s estimates of the effects of changes in federal deficits on national saving and private domestic investment.
- Blog Post
U.S. Labor Market Has Recovered Slowly and Only Partially Since the End of the Recession
The slow recovery of the labor market largely reflects slow growth in the demand for goods and services. Output will grow more rapidly in the next few years than it has recently but recovery in the labor market will take some time.
- Blog Post
Economic Growth Is Projected to Be Solid in the Near Term, but Weakness in the Labor Market Will Probably Persist
CBO projects that the economy will grow more rapidly from 2014 to 2017—at an average rate of about 3 percent a year—than it did in 2013. But the unemployment rate will decline only gradually, finally dropping below 6.0 percent in 2017.
- Blog Post
Federal Revenues Are Projected to Increase Significantly Over the Next Two Years and Remain Steady as a Share of GDP Thereafter
Revenues are projected to continue rebounding from a post-recession low of 14.6 percent of GDP in 2009 and 2010—rising to 18.2 percent in 2015. They are projected to stay between 18.0 percent and 18.4 percent of GDP from 2016 through 2024.
- Presentation
CBO’s Outlook for the Economy
Presentation by Doug Elmendorf, CBO Director, to the National Association for Business Economics
- Blog Post
CBO’s Projections of Federal Spending Over the Next Decade
Under current law, outlays for Social Security, major health care programs, and net interest will grow over the coming decade, CBO estimates, while spending for other programs will decline relative to the size of the economy.
- Blog Post
Presentation to the National Association for Business Economics
How will the labor market evolve? How rapidly will potential and actual output grow? What will be the paths of inflation and interest rates? Director Doug Elmendorf addressed these and other questions about CBO's outlook for the economy.
- Blog Post
Federal Budget Deficits Are Projected to Decline Through 2015 but Rise Thereafter, Further Boosting Federal Debt
In recent years, debt held by the public has been significantly greater relative to GDP than at any time since just after World War II; under current law it will continue to be quite high by historical standards during the next decade.
- Presentation
Making Choices About Federal Spending and Taxes
Presentation by Doug Elmendorf, CBO Director, to the Economic Club of Minnesota