Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
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Answers to Questions for the Record Following a Hearing on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034
The House Committee on the Budget convened a hearing at which Phillip L. Swagel, CBO's Director, testified. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record.
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The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054
The federal budget deficit increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product over the next 30 years, in CBO’s projections, pushing federal debt held by the public far beyond any previously recorded level.
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Testimony on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034
CBO’s Director, Phillip Swagel, testifies before the House Budget Committee.
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The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034
In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.
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Testimony on the Accuracy of CBO’s Recent Baseline Projections
CBO Director Phillip Swagel testifies before the House Committee on the Budget.
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Effects of No GDP Growth on Federal Deficits
CBO was asked what the effects on federal deficits would be if the economy was stagnant over two years. The agency created two scenarios with no growth of gross domestic product adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.
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CBO’s Current View of the Economy and the Implications for the Federal Budget and for Workers
CBO responds to questions about the agency's current view of economic growth and interest rates and the implications of that view for the federal budget—as well as about the implications of inflation for workers.
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The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2023
In its May 2022 projections for fiscal year 2023, CBO overestimated revenues by 11 percent and underestimated outlays by 9 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal deficit for 2023 was less than the actual amount by 3.9 percent of GDP.
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Federal Budgetary Effects of the Activities of the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation
CBO estimates that the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation’s (CMMI’s) activities increased federal spending between 2011 and 2020 and will also increase it from 2021 to 2030. In 2010, CBO projected that CMMI would produce savings.
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CBO’s Long-Term Projections of Gross Federal Debt
In response to a request from Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington, CBO provides information about the agency’s long-term projections of gross federal debt. By the end of 2053, such debt is projected to reach 192 percent of GDP.