Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
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Testimony on CBO’s Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030
CBO Director Phillip Swagel testifies about The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030 before the House Budget Committee.
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The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030
In CBO’s projections of the outlook under current law, deficits remain large by historical standards, federal debt grows to 98 percent of GDP by 2030, and the economy expands at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent from 2021 to 2030.
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Projected Changes in the Distribution of Household Income, 2016 to 2021
This report projects the distributions of household income, means-tested transfers, and federal taxes under current law in 2021 and compares them with the actual distributions in 2016.
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The Accuracy of CBO’s Baseline Estimates for Fiscal Year 2019
In its 2018 projections for fiscal year 2019, CBO overestimated revenues and underestimated outlays by 0.8 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit in 2019 was less than the actual amount by 0.1 percent of GDP.
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CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2019 Update
CBO’s economic forecasts have been comparable in quality to those of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus. Large errors in CBO’s forecasts tend to reflect challenges faced by all forecasters.
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Budgetary Outcomes Under Alternative Assumptions About Fiscal Policy
In this report, CBO provides information about how its most recent budget projections would change under alternative assumptions about future fiscal policies and estimates the possible budgetary outcomes.
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An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029
In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits remain large by historical standards, and federal debt grows to equal 95 percent of GDP by 2029. Economic growth is expected to slow from 2.3 percent in 2019 to a rate that is below its long-run historical average.
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The Impact of Various Levels of Federal Debt on GNP and GNP per Capita
In a letter to Congressman Steve Womack, CBO provides additional information about its extended baseline projections and three alternative scenarios from The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook. Specifically, CBO provides estimates of gross national product (GNP) and GNP per capita in all four cases.
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CBO’s Projections of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts: 2019 to 2029
Federal receipts and expenditures in the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) differ in certain ways from revenues and outlays as shown in the federal budget. This report presents CBO’s May 2019 baseline projections using the NIPA framework.
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The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook
If current laws generally remained unchanged, large budget deficits would boost federal debt to unprecedented levels over the next 30 years, CBO projects.