Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Working Paper
Uncertainty About Projections of Medicare Cost Growth: Technical Paper 2004-13
Over the next several decades, Medicare costs are going to increase significantly. Previous analysis has looked at the potential range of costs using a deterministic, scenario-based analysis.
- Working Paper
Valuing Federal Loans and Loan Guarantees Using Options-Pricing Methods: Technical Paper 2004-12
This paper provides more detail about the methods used in the CBO study, “Estimating Subsidies for Federal Loans and Guarantees,” (August 2004).
- Working Paper
Macroeconomic Impacts of Stylized Tax Cuts in an Intertemporal Computable General Equilibrium Model: Technical Paper 2004-11
What are the consequences of stylized cuts in federal personal income tax rates when applying alternative options for financing changes in fiscal policy?
- Working Paper
Large Foreign Markets and Export-Led Growth in Developing Countries: Technical Paper 2004-10
Many economists and policymakers believe that international trade played an important role in the economic growth miracles of East Asia, but there is no consensus on the precise way trade helped.
- Working Paper
Health Shocks and the Demand for Annuities: Technical Paper 2004-09
A dynamic programming model is used to estimate the demand for life annuities and the relative significance of the factors that affect the demand: health shocks, Social Security, bequest motives and premium loads.
- Working Paper
Macroeconomic Analysis of a 10 Percent Cut in Income Tax Rates: Technical Paper 2004-07
This paper explores the effects of a simple policy change—a 10 percent tax cut—to shed light on the different models CBO uses to examine the macroeconomic effects of policy changes.
- Working Paper
The Taxation of Distributions From Retirement Savings Plans: Technical Paper 2004-06
The Taxation of Distributions From Retirement Savings Plans
- Working Paper
Using the Natural Rate Concept to Assess the Consistency of Projections Ten Years Ahead for Real Interest Rates and Inflation: Technical Paper 2004-05
The concept of the “natural” long-term interest rate, a rate that is determined by the underlying production capability of the economy, provides a way to check the internal onsistency of medium-term economic projections.
- Working Paper
The Role of Saving in Economic Growth When the Cost of New Human Capital Depends on the Cost of Labor: Technical Paper 2004-04
If the cost of new human capital is proportional to the cost of labor, and thus proportional to labor productivity, the effect on output of a change in the saving rate for physical capital is the same as in the Solow growth model.
- Working Paper
Analyzing an Aging Population--A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach: Technical Paper 2004-03
A description of the model used to analyze the macroeconomic effects of Social Security policy proposals.