Long-Term Budget Analysis
- Blog Post
Upcoming Presentations
CBO's Director, Phillip Swagel, discusses his most recent and upcoming presentations about the agency's long-term budget projections, demographic projections, and the overall fiscal outlook.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054
The federal budget deficit increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product over the next 30 years, in CBO’s projections, pushing federal debt held by the public far beyond any previously recorded level.
- Blog Post
CBO to Release Long-Term Budget Projections on March 20
CBO will publish "The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054" on March 20 at 2 p.m. The report will provide projections of federal spending, revenues, deficits, and debt for the next 30 years.
- Report
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034
In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.
- Report
The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054
In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 342 million people in 2024 to 383 million people in 2054. Net immigration increasingly drives population growth, accounting for all population growth beginning in 2040.
- Presentation
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget
Presentation by Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller, and Grace Hwang of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis and Health Analysis divisions to the Children’s Health Group, American Academy of Pediatrics.
- Presentation
CBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget Projections
Presentation by Molly Dahl, Chief of CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit, at a meeting of the National Conference of State Legislatures’ Budget Working Group.
- Report
Testimony on CBO’s Demographic Projections
Julie Topoleski, CBO’s Director of Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis, testifies about CBO’s demographic projections before the Joint Economic Committee.
- Working Paper
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget: Working Paper 2023-07
On a present-value basis, CBO estimates that long-term fiscal effects of Medicaid spending on children could offset half or more of the program’s initial outlays, depending on sets of reasonable parameter values.
- Blog Post
Short-Term Spending and Long-Term Dynamic Effects
Some federal policies involve short-term expenditures that result in economic and budgetary effects far in the future. CBO has been building analytic capacity to consider a dynamic framework for policies that would have long-term effects.