Long-Term Budget Analysis
- Presentation
How CBO Develops the Economic Projections Underlying Its Long-Term Budget Projections
On Monday, August 5, Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, will give the following presentation to the Social Security and Medicare Trustees Working Group.
- Blog Post
Background for the Director’s Remarks to the Aspen Economic Strategy Group
On Monday, July 29, CBO Director Phill Swagel will speak to the Aspen Economic Strategy Group about the long-term fiscal challenges facing the nation. This blog post is provided to the members of the audience as background for those remarks.
- Presentation
Fiscal Policy Choices
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO Director, to the Aspen Economic Strategy Group.
- Blog Post
Director’s Statement on The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook
In our extended baseline projections in The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook, budget deficits drive federal debt held by the public to unprecedented levels.
- Presentation
How Income Growth Affects Tax Revenues in CBO’s Long-Term Budget Projections
CBO projects that federal revenues will increase by 3 percent of GDP over the next 30 years. Real bracket creep—when people’s income rises faster than the tax brackets and other elements of the tax system—accounts for about half of that increase.
- Report
The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook
If current laws generally remained unchanged, large budget deficits would boost federal debt to unprecedented levels over the next 30 years, CBO projects.
- Blog Post
CBO to Release Long-Term Budget Projections on June 25
CBO will release The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook at 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday, June 25. The report presents projections of what federal spending, revenues, deficits, and debt would be for the next 30 years if current laws generally did not change.
- Blog Post
CBO Releases an Interactive Tool for Analyzing the Effects of Certain Social Security Policies
This interactive tool lets users select different combinations of policies and see the effect on the finances of the Social Security system, as well as the impact on different groups of people.
- Interactive
How Changing Social Security Could Affect Beneficiaries and the System's Finances
This interactive tool lets the user explore seven policy options that could be used to improve the finances of the Social Security program and delay the exhaustion of its trust funds.
- Working Paper
The Effect of Government Debt on Interest Rates: Working Paper 2019-01
On average over the long term, each increase of 1 percentage point in federal debt as a percentage of GDP boosts interest rates by 2 to 3 basis points, CBO estimates.