Long-Term Budget Analysis
- Report
The Cost of Replacing Today’s Air Force Fleet
CBO projects that the annual cost (in 2018 dollars) of replacing the aircraft in the current fleet, essentially one-for-one, would average $15 billion in the 2020s, $23 billion in the 2030s, and $15 billion in the 2040s.
- Report
CBO's Long-Term Social Security Projections: Changes Since 2017 and Comparisons With the Social Security Trustees' Projections
This report explains the changes to CBO’s long-term Social Security projections since last year and compares CBO’s projections with those of the Social Security Trustees.
- Report
An Analysis of the Navy's Fiscal Year 2019 Shipbuilding Plan
The Navy’s 2019 shipbuilding plan calls for expanding the fleet to 355 battle force ships. On average, implementing the plan would cost 80 percent more per year than the funding for shipbuilding that the Navy has received in recent decades.
- Report
Reducing Primary Deficits Beginning in 2022
CBO provides additional information to Congressman Jodey Arrington regarding the effects of two illustrative scenarios in which the primary deficit is reduced in relation to CBO’s extended baseline beginning in 2022.
- Report
CBO’s 2018 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information
In lieu of publishing a separate report providing additional information on the agency’s long-term projections for Social Security, CBO is publishing the data that it would have presented in that report.
- Report
The Deficit Reductions Necessary to Meet Various Targets for Federal Debt
What changes in federal budget deficits would be necessary to reduce debt held by the public over the long term? CBO analyzed the primary deficit reductions necessary to meet three different debt targets in four different time frames.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for Fiscal Policy
Expanding on its earlier long-term baseline projections, CBO shows how the federal budget and the economy would evolve under three scenarios in which laws would be changed to continue certain policies now in place, leading to higher debt.
- Report
The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook
If current laws remain generally unchanged, CBO projects, federal budget deficits and debt would increase over the next 30 years—reaching the highest level of debt relative to GDP in the nation’s history by far.
- Report
An Overview of CBOLT: The Congressional Budget Office Long-Term Model
CBOLT is the main analytical tool that CBO uses to make long-term projections of the economy and federal budget. Those projections help shed light on fiscal challenges that extend beyond CBO’s standard 10-year projection window.
- Report
CBO’s 2017 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information
This year, in lieu of publishing a separate report providing additional information on the agency’s long-term projections for Social Security, CBO is publishing the data that it would have presented in that report.