Long-Term Budget Analysis
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Changes to CBO’s Long-Term Social Security Projections Since 2016
This report explains the changes to CBO’s long-term Social Security projections since last year. Compared with those made in July 2016, CBO’s latest projections indicate a slight improvement in the financial outlook for Social Security.
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The 2017 Long-Term Budget Outlook
If current laws remained generally unchanged, the United States would face steadily increasing federal budget deficits and debt over the next 30 years—reaching the highest level of debt relative to GDP ever experienced in this country.
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CBO’s 2016 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information
Under current law, CBO projects, Social Security’s trust funds, considered together, will be exhausted in 2029. In that case, benefits in 2030 would need to be reduced by 29 percent from the scheduled amounts.
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Answers to Questions for the Record From Ranking Member Becerra Following a Hearing by the House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Social Security on Understanding Social Security’s Solvency Challenge
The House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Social Security convened a hearing at which CBO’s Director testified on financial shortfalls projected for Social Security. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record.
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Answers to Questions for the Record From Chairman Johnson Following a Hearing by the House Subcommittee on Social Security, Committee on Ways and Means, on the Comparison of CBO’s Long-Term Projections With Those of the Social Security Trustees
The House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Social Security convened a hearing at which CBO’s Director testified on financial shortfalls projected for Social Security. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record.
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Testimony on Comparing CBO’s Long-Term Projections With Those of the Social Security Trustees
Both CBO and the Social Security Trustees project a shortfall in Social Security finances but they differ in their assessment of its magnitude. This testimony describes that difference and the major factors that contribute to it.
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The 2016 Long-Term Budget Outlook
If current laws remained generally unchanged, the United States would face steadily increasing federal budget deficits and debt over the next 30 years—reaching the highest level of debt relative to GDP ever experienced in this country.
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Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified by Chairman Price, March 2016
Under budgetary paths (not particular policies) specified by Chairman Price, the budget would show a surplus in 2026. In comparison with CBO's extended baseline, economic output would be lower in the next few years but higher after 2020.
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The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2016 to 2026
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2016 will be $544 billion, raising debt held by the public to 76 percent of GDP. Solid short-term growth in the economy is projected to be followed by slower growth in subsequent years.
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CBO’s 2015 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information
Under current law, CBO projects, Social Security’s trust funds, considered together, will be exhausted in 2029. In that case, benefits in 2030 would need to be reduced by 29 percent from the scheduled amounts.