Long-Term Budget Analysis
- Working Paper
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget: Working Paper 2023-07
On a present-value basis, CBO estimates that long-term fiscal effects of Medicaid spending on children could offset half or more of the program’s initial outlays, depending on sets of reasonable parameter values.
- Working Paper
The Effect of Government Debt on Interest Rates: Working Paper 2019-01
On average over the long term, each increase of 1 percentage point in federal debt as a percentage of GDP boosts interest rates by 2 to 3 basis points, CBO estimates.
- Working Paper
Fiscal Policy Effects in a Heterogeneous-Agent Overlapping-Generations Economy With an Aging Population: Working Paper 2013-07
This paper shows that considering an aging population is important in analyzing long-term policy changes that involve intergenerational transfers.
- Working Paper
Optimal Annuitization with Stochastic Mortality Probabilities: Working Paper 2013-05
This working paper models decisions about purchasing annuities in a context in which individuals learn new information about their health status over time.
- Working Paper
Modeling Individual Earnings in CBO’s Long-Term Microsimulation Model: Working Paper 2013-04
This working paper describes the methods developed to project individual earnings in CBO’s long-term microsimulation model.
- Working Paper
Total Factor Productivity Growth in Historical Perspective: Working Paper 2013-01
This paper reviews the broad contours of total factor productivity growth in the U.S. economy since 1870, highlighting the contribution of various technological innovations to the growth of different sectors of the economy.
- Working Paper
Assessing the Short-Term Effects on Output of Changes in Federal Fiscal Policies: Working Paper 2012-08
Assessing the Short-Term Effects on Output of Changes in Federal Fiscal Policies
- Working Paper
The Earned Income Tax Credit and Expected Social Security Retirement Benefits Among Low-Income Women: Working Paper 2012-06
The Earned Income Tax Credit and Expected Social Security Retirement Benefits Among Low-Income Women
- Working Paper
The CBO Infinite-Horizon Model with Idiosyncratic Uncertainty and Borrowing Constraints: Working Paper 2009-03
This paper describes the infinite-horizon general equilibrium model that, among other models, CBO uses for its analysis of the President's budgetary proposals.
- Working Paper
Identifying Rates of Emigration in the United States Using Administrative Earnings Records: Working Paper 2009-01
This paper undertakes a new strategy to estimate emigration rates among U.S. immigrants by inferring the probability of emigration using longitudinal administrative earnings data from 1978 through 2003.