CBO publishes 10-year forecasts of economic activity conditioned on the current laws governing federal spending and taxes. Those forecasts are typically released in January and August each year. The agency regularly evaluates the quality of its economic forecasts by comparing them with the economy’s actual performance and with forecasts by the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus—an average of about 50 private-sector forecasts. CBO also constructs long-term economic projections, with a focus on how budget policies would affect the economy and how those changes, in turn, would affect the federal budget.
Jul 2014 - If current laws remained generally unchanged, federal debt held by the public would exceed 100 percent of GDP by 2039 and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
Feb 2014 - Under current law, deficits will drop through 2015 but rise thereafter, boosting the already high federal debt, CBO projects. Economic growth will be solid in the near term, but unemployment will not drop below 6.0 percent until 2017.
Feb 2014 - Since the recession ended in June 2009, employment has risen sluggishly and the unemployment rate has fallen only partway back to its prerecession level. This CBO report discusses the reasons for the slow recovery of the labor market.
Jul 2013 - Projections of income earned by individuals and businesses are an integral part of CBO’s regular 10-year projections of the economy and a key component of its projections of federal revenues and outlays.
Jan 2013 - CBO’s macroeconomic forecasts have been comparable in quality with those of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus.
- PresentationJuly 22, 2014
- GraphicJuly 16, 2014
- ReportJuly 15, 2014
Answers to Questions for the Record Following a Hearing on the Budget and Economic Outlook for 2014 to 2024 Conducted by the House Committee on the BudgetReportJune 19, 2014
- Blog PostJune 18, 2014
Answers to Questions for the Record Following a Hearing on the Budget and Economic Outlook for 2014 to 2024 Conducted by the Senate Committee on the BudgetReportJune 10, 2014
Complementary Putty-Clay Capital and Its Implications for Modeling Business Investment and Measuring Income from Intangible Capital: Working Paper 2014-03Working PaperMay 2, 2014
- ReportFebruary 28, 2014
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