CBO publishes 10-year forecasts of economic activity conditioned on the current laws governing federal spending and taxes. Those forecasts are typically released in January and August each year. The agency regularly evaluates the quality of its economic forecasts by comparing them with the economy’s actual performance and with forecasts by the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus—an average of about 50 private-sector forecasts. CBO also constructs long-term economic projections, with a focus on how budget policies would affect the economy and how those changes, in turn, would affect the federal budget.
Feb 2014 - Under current law, deficits will drop through 2015 but rise thereafter, boosting the already high federal debt, CBO projects. Economic growth will be solid in the near term, but unemployment will not drop below 6.0 percent until 2017.
Feb 2014 - Since the recession ended in June 2009, employment has risen sluggishly and the unemployment rate has fallen only partway back to its prerecession level. This CBO report discusses the reasons for the slow recovery of the labor market.
Sep 2013 - Federal debt would grow to 100 percent of GDP by 2038 under current law, CBO projects, and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
Jul 2013 - Projections of income earned by individuals and businesses are an integral part of CBO’s regular 10-year projections of the economy and a key component of its projections of federal revenues and outlays.
Jan 2013 - CBO’s macroeconomic forecasts have been comparable in quality with those of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus.
- ReportFebruary 28, 2014
The Long-Run Effects of Federal Budget Deficits on National Saving and Private Domestic Investment: Working Paper 2014-02Working PaperFebruary 28, 2014
- Blog postFebruary 27, 2014
Economic Growth Is Projected to Be Solid in the Near Term, but Weakness in the Labor Market Will Probably PersistBlog postFebruary 26, 2014
- PresentationFebruary 24, 2014
- Blog postFebruary 24, 2014
- Blog postFebruary 19, 2014
- ReportFebruary 11, 2014
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