In addition to its work projecting the economy and the federal budget over the next 10 years, CBO also analyzes the long-term outlook for the economy and the budget. Key factors affecting the outlook include developments in labor force participation, productivity, interest rates, and the costs of health care.
Long-Term Economic Trends
Dec 2013 - Spending on the Social Security program will exceed its dedicated tax revenues, on average, by about 12 percent over the next decade, CBO projects. The gap will grow larger in the 2020s and will exceed 30 percent of revenues by 2030.
Sep 2013 - Federal debt would grow to 100 percent of GDP by 2038 under current law, CBO projects, and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
Over the past few years, the federal government has been recording budget deficits that are the largest as a share of the economy since 1945. Consequently, the amount of federal debt held by the public has surged.
Aug 2011 - CBO's first infographic summarizes some of the agency's most recent projections for Social Security and provides background information on the program.
Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified by Chairman Ryan, April 2014reportApril 1, 2014
- reportFebruary 28, 2014
The Long-Run Effects of Federal Budget Deficits on National Saving and Private Domestic Investment: Working Paper 2014-02working paperFebruary 28, 2014
Fiscal Policy Effects in a Heterogeneous-Agent Overlapping-Generations Economy With an Aging Population: Working Paper 2013-07working paperDecember 6, 2013
- reportSeptember 26, 2013
- presentationSeptember 23, 2013
- reportSeptember 17, 2013
- working paperMarch 18, 2013
Use this menu to filter CBO's publications by topic. From January 2011 forward, all the agency's products are categorized by topic. Cost estimates released prior to the 112th Congress are not categorized by topic.