For this estimate, CBO assumes that the bill will be enacted by the end of fiscal year 2018. Most of the current authorizations for agriculture and nutrition programs that are reauthorized by H.R. 2 will expire at the end of fiscal year 2018. However, consistent with the rules governing baseline projections that are specified in the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985 (BBEDCA), CBO’s baseline incorporates the assumption that those programs will continue to operate after their authorizations expire in the same manner as they did before such expiration. Thus, the costs of extending those authorizations through 2023 are not included in the costs attributable to this bill. CBO estimates that those costs would total $387 billion over the 2019-2023 period.
Relative to spending projected under CBO’s April 2018 baseline, CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 2 would increase direct spending by $3.2 billion over the 2019-2023 period. Following the rules specified in BBEDCA, CBO has incorporated the assumption that the changes made to those programs would continue after 2023, the final year of authorization under the bill. On that basis, CBO estimates that direct spending would decrease by $2.7 billion over the 2024-2028 period, for a net increase in direct spending of $0.5 billion over the 2019-2028 period. CBO also estimates that enacting the bill would increase revenues by $0.5 billion over the 2019-2028 period.
Because enacting H.R. 2 would affect direct spending and revenues, pay-as-you-go procedures apply.
Further details about the changes in direct spending and revenues are displayed in the enclosed tables. Table 1 shows CBO’s estimate of the budgetary effects by title; Table 2 shows estimates for specific provisions within the various titles of the bill; and Table 3 provides estimates pertaining to specific agricultural commodities under title I of the legislation.
CBO estimates that enacting the bill would not increase net direct spending or on-budget deficits in any of the four consecutive 10-year periods beginning in 2029.
CBO has not estimated the additional discretionary spending that would result from implementing H.R. 2; such spending would be subject to future appropriation actions. CBO also has not reviewed the bill for intergovernmental or private-sector mandates.
