Economists at CBO regularly assess the state of the economy and prepare the economic projections that underlie CBO’s projections for the federal budget and cost estimates for proposed legislation. CBO’s analysts also study major aspects of the economy, such as trends in productivity and the condition of labor markets, and they examine the economic impact of major changes in federal spending programs and the federal tax system.
Feb 2014 - Under current law, deficits will drop through 2015 but rise thereafter, boosting the already high federal debt, CBO projects. Economic growth will be solid in the near term, but unemployment will not drop below 6.0 percent until 2017.
Feb 2014 - Since the recession ended in June 2009, employment has risen sluggishly and the unemployment rate has fallen only partway back to its prerecession level. This CBO report discusses the reasons for the slow recovery of the labor market.
Dec 2013 - Federal debt is projected to rise significantly over the long term. What policy changes could reduce future deficits and thus lower the trajectory of federal debt? What criteria might be used to evaluate those policy changes?
Economic Effects in 2014 of Eliminating the Automatic Spending Reductions Specified in the Budget Control Act
Sep 2013 - During testimony on The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook, estimates were provided for the economic effects of eliminating automatic spending reductions in 2014. This letter corrects and clarifies those estimates.
Sep 2013 - Federal debt would grow to 100 percent of GDP by 2038 under current law, CBO projects, and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
The Economic Impact of S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act
Jun 2013 - S. 744 would boost economic output—CBO projects—by 3.3 percent in 2023 and by 5.4 percent in 2033. Employment, investment, and productivity would increase, but average wages would be less than under current law until 2025.
Feb 2013 - CBO examined three budgetary paths that would increase or reduce budget deficits relative to current law. Through 2023, those paths would result in considerably different trajectories of federal debt and the nation’s output and income.
Nov 2012 - During the three years following the recession in 2008 and 2009, the economy’s output grew at less than half the rate seen, on average, during other economic recoveries in the United States since the end of World War II.
Nov 2011 - Testimony by Douglas W. Elmendorf, CBO Director, before the Committee on the Budget, United States Senate.
- cost estimateApril 8, 2014
- cost estimateApril 1, 2014
Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified by Chairman Ryan, April 2014reportApril 1, 2014
- blog postMarch 20, 2014
- blog postMarch 13, 2014
- presentationFebruary 20, 2014
- reportMarch 12, 2014
- reportFebruary 28, 2014
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