Twice a year, CBO publishes 10-year forecasts of economic activity conditioned on the federal spending and taxes that will occur under current law. For the beginning years of that span, each forecast incorporates the effect of the business cycle; for the later years of the span, each forecast relies on long-term trends in the labor force, saving, and productivity. CBO also makes long-term budget projections.
Feb 2014 - Under current law, deficits will drop through 2015 but rise thereafter, boosting the already high federal debt, CBO projects. Economic growth will be solid in the near term, but unemployment will not drop below 6.0 percent until 2017.
Feb 2014 - Since the recession ended in June 2009, employment has risen sluggishly and the unemployment rate has fallen only partway back to its prerecession level. This CBO report discusses the reasons for the slow recovery of the labor market.
Sep 2013 - Federal debt would grow to 100 percent of GDP by 2038 under current law, CBO projects, and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
Jul 2013 - Projections of income earned by individuals and businesses are an integral part of CBO’s regular 10-year projections of the economy and a key component of its projections of federal revenues and outlays.
May 2012 - Under current law, the federal budget deficit will fall dramatically between 2012 and 2013 owing to scheduled increases in taxes and, to a lesser extent, scheduled reductions in spending—a development that some observers have referred to as a “fiscal cliff.”
- reportFebruary 28, 2014
The Long-Run Effects of Federal Budget Deficits on National Saving and Private Domestic Investment: Working Paper 2014-02working paperFebruary 28, 2014
- blog postFebruary 27, 2014
Economic Growth Is Projected to Be Solid in the Near Term, but Weakness in the Labor Market Will Probably Persistblog postFebruary 26, 2014
- presentationFebruary 24, 2014
- blog postFebruary 24, 2014
- blog postFebruary 19, 2014
- reportFebruary 11, 2014
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