Over the past 40 years, federal revenues have ranged from nearly 21 percent of GDP, in fiscal year 2000, to less than 16 percent, in fiscal years 2009 through 2012; they have averaged about 18 percent of GDP over the four decades. In addition to projecting the future course of federal revenues, CBO analyzes the budgetary and economic effects of various features of the federal tax system and the effects of potential changes to current tax rules.
Apr 2014 - The deficit will decrease to $492 billion in 2014, CBO projects. But under current law, deficits will begin rising again in 2016—and by 2024, debt will reach 78 percent of GDP, twice the average of the past 40 years.
Feb 2014 - Under current law, deficits will drop through 2015 but rise thereafter, boosting the already high federal debt, CBO projects. Economic growth will be solid in the near term, but unemployment will not drop below 6.0 percent until 2017.
Dec 2013 - Federal debt is projected to rise significantly over the long term. What policy changes could reduce future deficits and thus lower the trajectory of federal debt? What criteria might be used to evaluate those policy changes?
Dec 2013 - Households in the top quintile (including the top percentile) paid 68.8 percent of all federal taxes, households in the middle quintile paid 9.1 percent, and those in the bottom quintile paid 0.4 percent.
Nov 2013 - CBO analyzes the distribution of most federal spending—including transfers like Social Security benefits—and almost all federal revenues among U.S. households in 2006. Results are provided by type of household and by income group.
Nov 2013 - CBO periodically issues a compendium of options—this installment presents more than 100—to inform lawmakers about the budgetary effects of ways to reduce the deficit.
Sep 2013 - Federal debt would grow to 100 percent of GDP by 2038 under current law, CBO projects, and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
May 2013 - In 2013, the benefits of 10 of the largest tax expenditures will equal 11.7 percent of income for households in the lowest income quintile, 9.4 percent for the highest quintile, and under 8 percent for the middle quintiles, CBO estimates.
May 2013 - A carbon tax’s effect on the economy depends on how lawmakers would use revenues generated by the tax. The tax would help reduce U.S. emissions but would have only a modest effect on the Earth’s climate without a worldwide effort.
Jan 2013 - The number and cost of refundable tax credits have grown considerably since 1975. Federal costs (in 2013 dollars) peaked at $238 billion in 2008, but costs will fall to $149 billion in 2013, CBO projects, before reaching $213 billion in 2021.
Dec 2012 - Business activity subject to individual rather than corporate income tax has grown, reducing federal revenues but probably promoting investment.
Nov 2012 - Effective marginal tax rates among low- and moderate-income workers are about 30 percent, on average, with about one-third of that rate stemming from the federal income tax, more than a third from federal payroll taxes, and the remainder from state income taxes and the phaseout of SNAP benefits.
- data or technical informationFebruary 4, 2014
- data or technical informationApril 14, 2014
Updated Estimates of the Effects of the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act, April 2014reportApril 14, 2014
- reportApril 14, 2014
- presentationApril 4, 2014
H.R. 2131, Supplying Knowledge-based Immigrants and Lifting Levels of STEM Visas Act (SKILLS Visa Act)cost estimateMarch 12, 2014
- reportMarch 12, 2014
Federal Revenues Are Projected to Increase Significantly Over the Next Two Years and Remain Steady as a Share of GDP Thereafterblog postFebruary 25, 2014
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