- Working Paper
The results of this analysis indicate that tax changes have significant effects on labor market outcomes, but those effects vary depending on the state of the economy at the time a tax change is implemented.
- Working Paper
This paper describes CBO’s methods for estimating the costs of the federal terrorism risk insurance program. It also discusses how estimates of the program’s budgetary effects would differ if they were produced using accrual-based measures rather than cash-based measures.
- Working Paper
Oil prices are one of the economic variables that underlie CBO's projections of the federal budget. This paper describes CBO's methods to forecast oil prices and evaluates the quality of the agency's historical forecasts.
- Working Paper
Learn how CBO projects the budgetary cost of student loans repaid through income-driven plans. This working paper provides information on the characteristics of borrowers in those plans and on the methods used to project borrowers’ earnings, repayment, and resulting forgiveness.
- Working Paper
CBO uses the budgetary feedback model (BFM) to estimate how changes in the macroeconomy might affect the federal budget. This paper describes how the BFM is constructed, how it is used in CBO's dynamic analyses, and the model's limitations.
- Working Paper
The costs of federal activities are recorded in the budget mostly on a cash basis. Using accrual accounting for retirement and insurance programs would accelerate the recognition of long-term costs and display the expected costs of new commitments when they were incurred.
- Working Paper
CBO uses a model to estimate the federal budgetary effects of proposed changes to the cost-sharing structure of the Medicare fee-for-service program. This paper describes that model, the analyses it can support, and an illustrative option for changing Medicare’s cost-sharing structure.
- Working Paper
This paper studies the current state of inflation dynamics using a Phillips curve model, assesses the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations, and analyzes the sensitivity of inflation to cyclical fluctuations of economic conditions.
- Working Paper
This paper develops an empirical model to forecast the effects on employee contribution rates and on employer costs if the federal government changed the employer match or the default contribution rate for participants in the Thrift Savings Plan.
- Working Paper
In this working paper, CBO analyzes how corporate income tax rates affect flows of trade between the affiliates of multinationals—known as related-party trade—to examine whether transfer prices are sensitive to tax differentials.