Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Report
The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
CBO presents its projections of what federal deficits, debt, spending, and revenues would be for the next 30 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally did not change.
- Blog Post
A Presentation on CBO’s Latest Budget Projections
In a talk before the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Chief Economists Committee, CBO Director Phillip Swagel spoke about CBO’s latest 10-year budget projections.
- Report
An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2020 to 2030
CBO projects a federal budget deficit of $3.3 trillion in 2020, more than triple the shortfall recorded in 2019, mostly because of the economic disruption caused by the 2020 coronavirus pandemic and the enactment of legislation in response.
- Report
The Outlook for Major Federal Trust Funds: 2020 to 2030
CBO projects that the balances held by federal trust funds will fall by $43 billion in fiscal year 2020. Spending from the trust funds is projected to exceed income by $18 billion in 2021, a deficit that grows to $502 billion by 2030.
- Blog Post
CBO to Release Updated Budget Projections on September 2
The report will contain CBO’s latest baseline budget projections, which will be based on the economic projections that the agency released in July and will incorporate legislation enacted through August 4.
- Report
An Evaluation of CBO’s Past Revenue Projections
The average error for CBO’s budget-year revenue projections is 1.2 percent, indicating the agency has tended to slightly overestimate revenues. For the agency’s sixth-year revenue projections, the average error is greater—5.6 percent.
- Report
An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030
CBO projects that from 2020 to 2030, annual real GDP will be 3.4 percent lower, on average, than it projected in January. The annual unemployment rate, which was projected to average 4.2 percent, is now projected to average 6.1 percent.
- Blog Post
CBO to Release Updated Economic Projections on July 2
The report will provide CBO’s first complete set of 10-year economic projections since January. It will update the interim projections that the agency published in May, which focused on 2020 and 2021.
- Report
The Decline in CBO’s Projections of Gross Domestic Product for 2020 and 2021
In this letter, CBO responds to questions about the economic outlook, describing how its projections of U.S. gross domestic product have declined since January and how recent legislation will affect the economy.
- Report
Comparison of CBO’s May 2020 Interim Projections of Gross Domestic Product and Its January 2020 Baseline Projections
The two largest differences between the two forecasts result from the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in reducing output and the legislation enacted between January and early May in response, which partly offsets that reduction.