Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Report
How the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 Affects CBO’s Projections of Federal Debt
Deficit reductions under the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 reduce projected federal debt in 2033 by about 3 percent, from $46.7 trillion (or 119 percent of gross domestic product, or GDP) to $45.2 trillion (or 115 percent of GDP).
- Report
Automatic Stabilizers in the Federal Budget: 2023 to 2033
CBO projects the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of deficits without them—from 2023 to 2033 and provides historical estimates of the stabilizers’ effects since 1973.
- Blog Post
Presentations
CBO Director Phillip Swagel discusses his recent and upcoming presentations on CBO’s latest budget projections and fiscal outlook.
- Report
Budgetary Outcomes Under Alternative Assumptions About Spending and Revenues
CBO provides information about how its most recent budget projections would change under different assumptions about future legislated policies.
- Report
An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2023 to 2033
CBO’s updated projections show a federal budget deficit of $1.5 trillion for 2023. That estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty, though, in part because of a recent shortfall in tax revenues.
- Report
Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, May 2023
CBO projects that if the debt limit remains unchanged, there is a significant risk that at some point in the first two weeks of June, the government will no longer be able to pay all of its obligations.
- Presentation
The Budget Outlook and Options for Reducing the Deficit
Presentation by Julie Topoleski, Director of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis Division, and Molly Saunders-Scott, analyst in CBO’s Tax Analysis Division, at the National Tax Association’s 53rd Annual Spring Symposium.
- Blog Post
CBO Sees Greater Risk That the Treasury Will Run Out of Funds in Early June
Because tax receipts through April have been less than CBO anticipated in February, the agency now estimates that there is a significantly greater risk that the Treasury will run out of funds in early June if the debt ceiling is unchanged.
- Report
How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2023 to 2033
To show how variations in economic conditions might affect its budget projections, CBO analyzed how revenues, outlays, and deficits might change if the values of key economic variables differed from those in the agency’s forecast.
- Report
An Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Outlays From 1984 to 2021
In this report, CBO uses various measures to assess the quality of its past projections of federal outlays. The analysis focuses on three fiscal years within each projection period: the budget year, the 6th year, and the 11th year.