Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Blog Post
Presentations
CBO Director Phillip Swagel discusses his recent and upcoming presentations on CBO’s latest budget projections and fiscal outlook.
- Report
Budgetary Outcomes Under Alternative Assumptions About Spending and Revenues
CBO provides information about how its most recent budget projections would change under different assumptions about future legislated policies.
- Report
An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2023 to 2033
CBO’s updated projections show a federal budget deficit of $1.5 trillion for 2023. That estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty, though, in part because of a recent shortfall in tax revenues.
- Report
Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, May 2023
CBO projects that if the debt limit remains unchanged, there is a significant risk that at some point in the first two weeks of June, the government will no longer be able to pay all of its obligations.
- Presentation
The Budget Outlook and Options for Reducing the Deficit
Presentation by Julie Topoleski, Director of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis Division, and Molly Saunders-Scott, analyst in CBO’s Tax Analysis Division, at the National Tax Association’s 53rd Annual Spring Symposium.
- Blog Post
CBO Sees Greater Risk That the Treasury Will Run Out of Funds in Early June
Because tax receipts through April have been less than CBO anticipated in February, the agency now estimates that there is a significantly greater risk that the Treasury will run out of funds in early June if the debt ceiling is unchanged.
- Report
How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2023 to 2033
To show how variations in economic conditions might affect its budget projections, CBO analyzed how revenues, outlays, and deficits might change if the values of key economic variables differed from those in the agency’s forecast.
- Report
An Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Outlays From 1984 to 2021
In this report, CBO uses various measures to assess the quality of its past projections of federal outlays. The analysis focuses on three fiscal years within each projection period: the budget year, the 6th year, and the 11th year.
- Blog Post
CBO to Release Updated Baseline Budget Projections on May 12
CBO will release a report updating its 10-year budget baseline on May 12, and an analysis of the President’s 2024 discretionary proposals on May 18. Also in May, CBO will release an updated report on federal debt and the statutory limit.
- Report
CBO Explains How It Develops the Budget Baseline
The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 requires CBO to produce an annual report on federal spending, revenues, and deficits or surpluses. This document provides answers to questions about how CBO prepares those baseline budget projections.