Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Report
The Publication Date of CBO’s Baseline Projections and CBO’s Process for Setting Priorities
CBO responds to Senator Mike Braun's questions about the publication date of the agency's baseline projections and about how CBO prioritizes its work.
- Blog Post
Update on the Timing of CBO’s Budget and Economic Projections
CBO anticipates publishing its budget and economic projections during the week of May 23 and releasing its analysis of the President’s budget request by early July.
- Presentation
A Presentation on the Budgetary Implications of Economic Scenarios With Higher or Lower Interest Rates
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, at the Spring 2022 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Conference.
- Working Paper
Budgetary Implications of Economic Scenarios With Higher and Lower Interest Rates: Working Paper 2022-04
This paper reports CBO’s projections of economic and budgetary outcomes under two scenarios with divergent paths for interest rates.
- Blog Post
Upcoming Presentations
CBO’s Director, Phillip Swagel, discusses his recent and upcoming presentations.
- Report
Budgetary Effects of Higher Inflation and Interest Rates
In a letter to Senator Crapo, CBO responds to a request for a description of the budgetary effects of higher inflation and interest rates.
- Report
The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2021
In its March 2020 projections for fiscal year 2021, CBO underestimated revenues by 15 percent and overestimated outlays by 4 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit in 2021 was more than the actual amount by 3.9 percent of GDP.
- Presentation
The Effects of Recent Legislation on the Economy and the Budget
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, at the American Economic Association Annual Meeting.
- Report
CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2021 Update
CBO assesses its two-year and five-year economic forecasts and compares them with forecasts of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus, an average of about 50 private-sector forecasts.
- Report
Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, November 2021
CBO projects that, if the debt limit remained unchanged and if the Treasury transferred $118 billion to the Highway Trust Fund on December 15, as currently planned, the Treasury would most likely run out of cash before the end of December.