Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
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Marginal Federal Tax Rates on Labor Income: 1962 to 2028
In this report, CBO projects, on the basis of current law, marginal federal tax rates on labor income from 2018 through 2028. So that current trends can be understood in a historical context, the projections are accompanied by rates from 1962.
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The Accuracy of CBO's Baseline Estimates for Fiscal Year 2018
In its June 2017 projections, CBO overestimated federal outlays and revenues for fiscal year 2018 by 1.7 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. The projected federal budget deficit for 2018 was 3.7 percent more than the actual amount.
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Reducing Primary Deficits Beginning in 2022
CBO provides additional information to Congressman Jodey Arrington regarding the effects of two illustrative scenarios in which the primary deficit is reduced in relation to CBO’s extended baseline beginning in 2022.
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The Deficit Reductions Necessary to Meet Various Targets for Federal Debt
What changes in federal budget deficits would be necessary to reduce debt held by the public over the long term? CBO analyzed the primary deficit reductions necessary to meet three different debt targets in four different time frames.
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An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028
In CBO’s updated projections, real gross domestic product (GDP) grows by 3.1 percent in 2018 and by 2.4 percent in 2019 before slowing in the following years.
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The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for Fiscal Policy
Expanding on its earlier long-term baseline projections, CBO shows how the federal budget and the economy would evolve under three scenarios in which laws would be changed to continue certain policies now in place, leading to higher debt.
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Answers to Questions for the Record Following a Hearing Conducted by the House Committee on the Budget on CBO Oversight: Economic Assumptions, Baseline Construction, Cost Estimating, and Scoring
The House Budget Committee convened a hearing at which Deputy Director Mark Hadley testified about CBO’s baseline projections and cost estimates. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record by Chairman Womack.
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CBO’s Projections of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts
Federal receipts and expenditures in the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) differ in certain ways from revenues and outlays as shown in the federal budget. This report presents CBO’s baseline projections using the NIPA framework.
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Fair-Value Estimates of the Cost of Federal Credit Programs in 2019
Using FCRA procedures, CBO estimates that new loans and loan guarantees issued in 2019 would result in savings of $37.4 billion. But using fair-value procedures, CBO estimates that they would have a lifetime cost of $37.9 billion.
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How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget
CBO has developed “rules of thumb” that show how changes in four key economic variables might affect revenues, outlays, and deficits. An interactive workbook allows users to see the budgetary effects of their own alternative scenarios.