Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Report
An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2023 to 2033
CBO’s updated projections show a federal budget deficit of $1.5 trillion for 2023. That estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty, though, in part because of a recent shortfall in tax revenues.
- Report
Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, May 2023
CBO projects that if the debt limit remains unchanged, there is a significant risk that at some point in the first two weeks of June, the government will no longer be able to pay all of its obligations.
- Report
How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2023 to 2033
To show how variations in economic conditions might affect its budget projections, CBO analyzed how revenues, outlays, and deficits might change if the values of key economic variables differed from those in the agency’s forecast.
- Report
An Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Outlays From 1984 to 2021
In this report, CBO uses various measures to assess the quality of its past projections of federal outlays. The analysis focuses on three fiscal years within each projection period: the budget year, the 6th year, and the 11th year.
- Report
CBO Explains How It Develops the Budget Baseline
The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 requires CBO to produce an annual report on federal spending, revenues, and deficits or surpluses. This document provides answers to questions about how CBO prepares those baseline budget projections.
- Report
Spending Reductions That Would Balance the Budget in 2033
CBO provides information about two budgetary paths specified by Chairman Whitehouse and Chairman Wyden that would eliminate the deficit through reductions in spending.
- Report
Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, February 2023
CBO projects that, if the debt limit is not raised or suspended, the government’s ability to issue additional debt—other than to replace maturing securities—will be exhausted between July and September 2023.
- Report
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033
In CBO’s projections, the federal deficit totals $1.4 trillion in 2023 and averages $2.0 trillion per year from 2024 to 2033. Real GDP growth comes to a halt in 2023 and then rebounds, averaging 2.4 percent from 2024 to 2027.
- Report
The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2022
In its July 2021 projections for fiscal year 2022, CBO underestimated revenues by 10 percent and outlays by 5 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit for 2022 was more than the actual amount by 0.8 percent of GDP.
- Report
CBO’s Current View of the Economy in 2023 and 2024 and the Budgetary Implications
CBO describes its current view of the economy over the next two years, compares that view with projections of other forecasters and with those that CBO made previously, and explains the implications for the federal budget.