Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
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CBO’s Long-Term Projections of Gross Federal Debt
In response to a request from Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington, CBO provides information about the agency’s long-term projections of gross federal debt. By the end of 2053, such debt is projected to reach 192 percent of GDP.
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CBO’s Projections of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts: 2023 to 2033
This report presents CBO’s projections of revenues and outlays for the 2023–2033 period translated into the framework of the national income and product accounts and their categories of current receipts and expenditures.
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Estimates of the Cost of Federal Credit Programs in 2024
CBO estimates the costs of federal credit programs in 2024 in two ways—following procedures prescribed by the Federal Credit Reform Act and using a fair-value approach, which measures the market value of the government’s obligations.
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The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.
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The Economic and Budgetary Effects of Discretionary Funding Caps as Specified in the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023
CBO has estimated what the economic and budgetary effects would be if the discretionary funding caps enacted in June 2023 had been those required under H.R. 2811, the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023.
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CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2023 Update
CBO assesses its two-year and five-year economic forecasts and compares them with forecasts of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus, an average of about 50 private-sector forecasts.
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The 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook
The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO's projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.
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How the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 Affects CBO’s Projections of Federal Debt
Deficit reductions under the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 reduce projected federal debt in 2033 by about 3 percent, from $46.7 trillion (or 119 percent of gross domestic product, or GDP) to $45.2 trillion (or 115 percent of GDP).
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Automatic Stabilizers in the Federal Budget: 2023 to 2033
CBO projects the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of deficits without them—from 2023 to 2033 and provides historical estimates of the stabilizers’ effects since 1973.
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Budgetary Outcomes Under Alternative Assumptions About Spending and Revenues
CBO provides information about how its most recent budget projections would change under different assumptions about future legislated policies.