Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
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An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030
CBO projects that from 2020 to 2030, annual real GDP will be 3.4 percent lower, on average, than it projected in January. The annual unemployment rate, which was projected to average 4.2 percent, is now projected to average 6.1 percent.
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The Decline in CBO’s Projections of Gross Domestic Product for 2020 and 2021
In this letter, CBO responds to questions about the economic outlook, describing how its projections of U.S. gross domestic product have declined since January and how recent legislation will affect the economy.
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Comparison of CBO’s May 2020 Interim Projections of Gross Domestic Product and Its January 2020 Baseline Projections
The two largest differences between the two forecasts result from the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in reducing output and the legislation enacted between January and early May in response, which partly offsets that reduction.
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Interim Economic Projections for 2020 and 2021
CBO estimates that real gross domestic product will contract by 11 percent in the second quarter of this year, which is equivalent to a decline of 38 percent at an annual rate, and that the number of people employed will be almost 26 million lower than the number in the fourth quarter of 2019.
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Estimates of the Cost of Federal Credit Programs in 2021
Using FCRA procedures, CBO estimates that new loans and loan guarantees issued in 2021 would result in savings of $41.8 billion. But using fair-value estimates, CBO projects that they would have a lifetime cost of $46.8 billion.
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Baseline Budget Projections as of March 6, 2020
As usual, CBO has produced spring baseline budget projections to reflect recent legislation and technical changes. Those projections are based on the agency’s January economic forecast and do not account for changes arising from the current public health emergency.
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Federal Debt: A Primer
From the end of 2008 to 2019, the amount of federal debt held by the public nearly tripled. This report describes federal debt, various ways to measure it, CBO’s projections for the coming decade, and the consequences of its growth.
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Answers to Questions for the Record Following a Hearing Conducted by the House Committee on the Budget on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030
The House Budget Committee convened a hearing at which Director Phillip Swagel testified about The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record by three Members of the Committee.
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Automatic Stabilizers in the Federal Budget: 2020 to 2030
In this report, CBO projects the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of deficits without them—from 2020 to 2030 and provides historical estimates of the stabilizers’ effects since 1970.
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How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2020 to 2030
To show how the federal budget might be affected if economic conditions differed from those in its current economic forecast, CBO has developed “rules of thumb” that provide a sense of how changes in four key economic variables would affect revenues, outlays, and deficits.