Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Working Paper
Modeling Long-Run Economic Growth: Technical Paper 2003-04
This paper reviews empirical literature on long-run growth to determine what factors influence growth in total factor productivity and whether there are any channels of influence that should be added to standard models of long-run growth.
- Working Paper
The Economic Costs of Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases: A Survey of Economic Models: Technical Paper 2003-03
This paper reviews studies in order to assess the economic cost of limiting greenhouse emissions through a system of tradable emissions permits and investigates the impact of alternative rules for trading.
- Working Paper
Testing for a Bequest Motive Using Cross-State Variation in Bequest Taxes: Technical Paper 2003-01
This paper attempts to determine whether bequests are intentional or accidental by looking at the effect of state bequest taxes (estate or inheritance taxes) on the giving of gifts while people are alive.
- Working Paper
Consumption Taxes and Economic Efficiency in a Stochastic OLG Economy: Technical Paper 2002-6
Fundamental tax reform is examined in a heterogeneous overlapping-generations life-cycle model in which agents face idiosyncratic earnings shocks and uncertain life spans.
- Working Paper
Modeling the U.S. Current Account as the Savings-Investment Balance: Technical Paper 2002-5
This paper derives and estimates a current account model from the perspective that the current account balance is the difference between national savings and investment.
- Working Paper
Ricardian Equivalence with Incomplete Household Risk Sharing: Technical Paper 2002-4
Several important empirical studies have found that households are not altruistically linked in a way consistent with the standard Ricardian model, as put forward by Barro (1974).
- Working Paper
Mate Matching for Microsimulation Models: Technical Paper 2002-3
A description of the method used in CBO's main Social Security model to simulate who marries whom--which has important implications for projections of benefit levels.
- Working Paper
Projecting Longitudinal Marriage Patterns for Long-Run Policy Analysis: Technical Paper 2002-2
A description of the method used in CBO's main Social Security model to project an individual's marital status.
- Working Paper
Using Time-Series Models to Project Output Over the Medium Term: Technical Paper 2002-1
This paper examines how multivariate time-series models might be used to project output over the medium term—that is, over a 10-year span.
- Working Paper
Privatizing Social Security in the U.S.: Comparing the Options: Technical Paper 1998-4
This paper considers alternative ways to privatize the U.S. Social Security system. It does so using a new rational-expectations simulation model based on the Auerbach and Kotlikoff (1987) model.