Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Working Paper
Behavioral Effects of Social Security Reform in a Dynamic Micro-Simulation with Life-Cycle Agents: Working Paper 2005-06
The Congressional Budget Office Long-Term (CBOLT) model uses dynamic micro-simulation to analyze Social Security policy.
- Working Paper
How Does Differential Mortality Affect Social Security Finances and Progressivity? Working Paper 2005-05
In this paper, the question of how differential mortality affects Social Security finances and progressivity is approached through sensitivity analysis using CBOLT.
- Working Paper
Does Social Security Privatization Produce Efficiency Gains? Working Paper 2005-04
The economic literature shows that privatizing Social Security can improve labor supply incentives, but it can also reduce risk sharing when households face uninsurable risks.
- Working Paper
Testing Alternative Methods for Forecasting Capital Gains: Working Paper 2005-03
CBO forecasts capital gains as part of its start-of-the-year budget outlook.
- Working Paper
Limited Participation, Income Distribution and Capital-Account Liberalization: Working Paper 2005-02
This paper studies whether the fact that some nationals do not have access to stock markets could limit the benefits of international liberalization, whether in size or in the differential impact across groups in society.
- Working Paper
A Sensitivity Analysis of the Elasticity of Taxable Income: Working Paper 2005-01
This paper applies the methods of Gruber and Saez (2002) to a panel of tax returns spanning 1979 through 2001 in order to examine the sensitivity of the elasticities of taxable and broad income to an array of factors.
- Working Paper
Return on Cross-Border Investment: Why Does U.S. Investment Abroad Do Better? Technical Paper 2004-17
Despite the large size of U.S. net financial obligations to foreigners, U. S. residents have continued to earn more income on their assets abroad than foreigners have on their assets in the United States.
- Working Paper
Recent Literature on Taxable-Income Elasticities: Technical Paper 2004-16
This paper reviews the literature on taxable-income elasticities, focusing primarily on empirical studies examining the U.S. tax changes of 1981, 1986, 1990, and 1993 and the bracket creep of the late 1970s and early 1980s.
- Working Paper
A Model to Project Flows into and out of Tax-Deferred Retirement Savings Accounts: Technical Paper 2004-15
This paper provides the complete specification of a model to project contributions to, investment earnings of, and distributions from tax-deferred retirement savings accounts.
- Working Paper
Estimating and Forecasting Capital Gains with Quarterly Models: Technical Paper 2004-14
At the end of each year, CBO estimates capital gains for the year ending and forecasts them for the next decade.