Long-Term Budget Analysis
- Blog Post
Corrections to CBO’s Analysis of Replacement Rates for Social Security
After questions were raised by outside analysts, we identified some errors in one part of our report, CBO’s 2015 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information, which was released on December 16, 2015.
- Report
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2016 to 2026
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2016 will be $544 billion, raising debt held by the public to 76 percent of GDP. Solid short-term growth in the economy is projected to be followed by slower growth in subsequent years.
- Report
CBO’s 2015 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information
Under current law, CBO projects, Social Security’s trust funds, considered together, will be exhausted in 2029. In that case, benefits in 2030 would need to be reduced by 29 percent from the scheduled amounts.
- Report
Social Security Policy Options, 2015
CBO analyzes 36 policy options commonly proposed by policymakers and analysts. Most of them would improve Social Security’s long-term finances, but only a few would significantly postpone the combined trust funds’ exhaustion date.
- Presentation
The Uncertainty of Long-Term Budget Projections
Presentation by Ben Page, CBO's Fiscal Policy Studies Unit Chief, at the National Tax Association 108th Annual Conference on Taxation
- Blog Post
Recent Presentations on CBO’s Budget Projections
CBO Director Keith Hall spoke to the Board of Trustees for the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation about CBO’s latest long-term projections.
- Presentation
CBO’s Assessment of the Long-Term Outlook for Interest Rates
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, at the Social Security Trustees Working Group
- Presentation
Investigating Monte Carlo Variation in a Dynamic Microsimulation Model
Michael Simpson, Principal Analyst in CBO's Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division, will present CBO’s findings to the Fifth World Congress of the International Microsimulation Association on September 2, 2015.
- Report
Answers to Questions for the Record Following a Hearing on The 2015 Long-Term Budget Outlook Conducted by the Senate Committee on the Budget
The Senate Budget Committee convened a hearing in June at which Director Keith Hall testified about the long-term budget outlook. Committee members submitted further questions for the record, and this document provides CBO’s answers.
- Blog Post
Presentation on CBO’s Long-Term Budget Outlook
Director Keith Hall spoke to the Center for Strategic Tax Reform, highlighting the key points of CBO’s latest long-term budget projections.