Long-Term Budget Analysis
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The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054
The federal budget deficit increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product over the next 30 years, in CBO’s projections, pushing federal debt held by the public far beyond any previously recorded level.
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The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034
In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.
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The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054
In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 342 million people in 2024 to 383 million people in 2054. Net immigration increasingly drives population growth, accounting for all population growth beginning in 2040.
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Testimony on CBO’s Demographic Projections
Julie Topoleski, CBO’s Director of Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis, testifies about CBO’s demographic projections before the Joint Economic Committee.
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An Analysis of the Navy’s Fiscal Year 2024 Shipbuilding Plan
Under the three alternatives in the Navy’s 2024 plan, total shipbuilding costs would average about $34 billion to $36 billion per year (in 2023 dollars) through 2053, CBO estimates, as the Navy built a fleet of 319 to 367 battle force ships.
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Long-Term Implications of the 2024 Future Years Defense Program
CBO analyzes the Department of Defense’s plans for 2024 through 2028 as presented in the 2024 Future Years Defense Program. Under those plans, CBO projects, defense costs would increase by 10 percent between 2028 and 2038.
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CBO’s Long-Term Projections of Gross Federal Debt
In response to a request from Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington, CBO provides information about the agency’s long-term projections of gross federal debt. By the end of 2053, such debt is projected to reach 192 percent of GDP.
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Answers to Questions for the Record Following a Hearing on Social Security’s Finances
The Senate Committee on the Budget convened a hearing at which Phillip L. Swagel, CBO's Director, testified about Social Security’s finances. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record.
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The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.
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CBO’s 2023 Long-Term Projections for Social Security
In CBO’s projections, spending for Social Security increases relative to GDP over the next 75 years, and the gap between outlays and revenues widens. If combined, the program’s trust funds would be exhausted in fiscal year 2033.