Economic Effects of Fiscal Policy
- Report
How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2024 to 2034
To show how variations in economic conditions might affect its budget projections, CBO analyzed how revenues, outlays, and deficits might change if the values of key economic variables differed from those in the agency’s forecast.
- Interactive
Workbook for How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2024 to 2034
This workbook allows users to define and analyze alternative economic scenarios by specifying differences in the values of four economic variables relative to the values underlying CBO's February 2024 projections.
- Report
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034
In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.
- Working Paper
Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.
- Report
The Economic and Budgetary Effects of Discretionary Funding Caps as Specified in the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023
CBO has estimated what the economic and budgetary effects would be if the discretionary funding caps enacted in June 2023 had been those required under H.R. 2811, the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023.
- Working Paper
Effects of Fiscal Policy on Inflation: Implications of Supply Disruptions and Economic Slack: Working Paper 2023-05
This paper provides evidence that supply disruptions, low economic slack, and the interaction of restrained supply with low slack each amplify the effects of expansionary fiscal policies on inflation.
- Interactive
Workbook for How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2023 to 2033
This workbook allows users to define and analyze alternative economic scenarios by specifying differences in the values of four economic variables relative to the values underlying CBO's February 2023 projections.
- Report
How the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing Affects the Federal Budget
In this report, CBO examines the mechanisms by which quantitative easing — large asset purchasing programs conducted by the Federal Reserve— affects the federal budget deficit.
- Report
How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2022 to 2032
To show how variations in economic conditions might affect its budget projections, CBO analyzed how the budget might change if values of four key economic variables differed from those in the agency’s forecast.