Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Report
CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2021 Update
CBO assesses its two-year and five-year economic forecasts and compares them with forecasts of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus, an average of about 50 private-sector forecasts.
- Report
Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, November 2021
CBO projects that, if the debt limit remained unchanged and if the Treasury transferred $118 billion to the Highway Trust Fund on December 15, as currently planned, the Treasury would most likely run out of cash before the end of December.
- Report
CBO’s Projections of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts: 2022 to 2031
This report presents CBO’s budget projections for 2022 to 2031 in the framework of the national income and product accounts, which differ in certain ways from revenues and outlays as shown in the federal budget.
- Presentation
CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2019 Update
Presentation by Edward Gamber, an analyst in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, to the OECD’s Working Party of Senior Budget Officials.
- Presentation
CBO’s Budget and Economic Analysis During the Pandemic
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, to the Council for Affordable Health Coverage.
- Presentation
CBO’s Budget and Economic Analysis During the Pandemic
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, at Brown University.
- Blog Post
Presentations on CBO’s Budget and Economic Analysis During the Pandemic
CBO’s Director, Phillip Swagel, discusses the agency’s budget and economic analysis during the pandemic.
- Working Paper
How Changes in the Distribution of Earnings Affect the Federal Deficit: Working Paper 2021-12
This paper examines how the federal budget deficit would have differed in 2018 under four scenarios that vary the distribution of labor earnings while leaving aggregate earnings unchanged.
- Report
Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, September 2021
CBO projects that, if the debt limit remains unchanged, the Treasury’s ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will be exhausted, and it will most likely run out of cash near the end of October or the beginning of November.
- Working Paper
CBO’s Model and Projections of U.S. International Investment Holdings and Income Flows: Working Paper 2021-10
Projections from CBO’s international financial forecasting model show the U.S. net international investment position rising modestly over the 10-year forecast period. Net international income is expected to rise as a share of GDP through 2023 before declining through 2031.