Methods for Baseline Economic Projections
- Working Paper
How CBO Projects Inflation
This paper describes how CBO projects consumer price inflation.
- Presentation
How CBO Forecasts Inflation
Presentation by Bob Arnold, Unit Chief in CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, to the Society of Actuaries.
- Working Paper
Inflation Expectations and Their Formation: Working Paper 2022-03
This paper reviews theory and evidence on how consumers and firms form their expectations about inflation and how monetary policymakers might influence that process; both of those factors have implications for CBO's baseline projections and policy analyses.
- Working Paper
CBO’s Model and Projections of U.S. International Investment Holdings and Income Flows: Working Paper 2021-10
Projections from CBO’s international financial forecasting model show the U.S. net international investment position rising modestly over the 10-year forecast period. Net international income is expected to rise as a share of GDP through 2023 before declining through 2031.
- Working Paper
The Historical Decline in Real Interest Rates and Its Implications for CBO’s Projections: Working Paper 2020-09
CBO describes the methods that it uses to project interest rates.
- Working Paper
CBO's Oil Price Forecasting Record: Working Paper 2020-03
Oil prices are one of the economic variables that underlie CBO's projections of the federal budget. This paper describes CBO's methods to forecast oil prices and evaluates the quality of the agency's historical forecasts.
- Working Paper
CBO’s Model for Forecasting Business Investment: Working Paper 2018-09
This paper presents CBO’s model of business investment, compares it with other models of investment, shows how the model is estimated, and discusses how CBO uses the model to forecast investment.
- Working Paper
CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates: Working Paper 2018-04
Describing the methods used to produce CBO’s projections of labor force participation rates, this paper examines the recent trends in the overall and prime-age labor force participation rates and whether those trends persist over 10 years.
- Working Paper
Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using CBO’s Forecasting Growth Model: Working Paper 2018-03
This paper documents CBO’s model of potential output. It describes the data, analytic methods, and modeling framework used to estimate historical values of the components of potential output and to project those values into the future.
- Working Paper
How CBO Produces Its 10-Year Economic Forecast: Working Paper 2018-02
This paper describes how CBO produces its semiannual economic forecast, including background analysis, preliminary forecasts, and internal and external review. It also describes the large-scale macro model used to produce the forecast.