Long-Term Budget Analysis
- Blog Post
Communicating the Uncertainty of CBO's Estimates
At a conference organized by the Brookings Institution, Director Doug Elmendorf discussed the ways in which CBO quantifies uncertainty and why most of the agency’s estimates are presented as point values.
- Presentation
Communicating Uncertainty in Budgetary and Economic Estimates
Presentation by Doug Elmendorf, CBO Director, at the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution.
- Presentation
Implications of Differential Mortality for Analyses of Social Security Policy Options
Presentation by Michael Simpson of CBO's Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division to the 2014 Fall Research Conference of the Association of Public Policy and Management.
- Blog Post
Presentations About the Budget Outlook
Last week Director Doug Elmendorf spoke at Macroeconomic Advisers’ Washington Policy Seminar and at Cornell University.
- Presentation
Shifting Priorities in the Federal Budget
Presentation by Doug Elmendorf, CBO Director, at Cornell University
- Blog Post
The Uncertainty of Long-Term Budget Projections
Even if future tax and spending policies match what is specified in current law, budgetary outcomes will undoubtedly differ from CBO’s projections because of unexpected changes in the economy, demographics, and other factors.
- Blog Post
Revisions to CBO's Projections of Federal Health Care Spending
After the release of The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook, a number of people asked for more information about how much CBO has revised projected federal health care spending during the past several years. This post answers their questions.
- Blog Post
How Would Various Fiscal Policies Affect Federal Debt and the Economy?
If tax and spending policies differed significantly from those specified in current law, budgetary and economic outcomes could differ substantially as well.
- Blog Post
What Are Some Key Policy Choices Posed by the Prospect of Rising Federal Debt?
The size of the policy changes that would be needed to reduce or constrain the growth of federal debt depends on the chosen goal for the amount of debt, and the timing of such changes involves various trade-offs.
- Blog Post
Growing Deficits Over the Long Term Would Cause Federal Debt to Exceed 100 Percent of GDP by 2039
How large would federal debt be in 25 years if current laws remained generally unchanged, and what would be the consequences of large and growing federal debt?