Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Working Paper
How Changes in the Distribution of Earnings Affect the Federal Deficit: Working Paper 2021-12
This paper examines how the federal budget deficit would have differed in 2018 under four scenarios that vary the distribution of labor earnings while leaving aggregate earnings unchanged.
- Report
Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, September 2021
CBO projects that, if the debt limit remains unchanged, the Treasury’s ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will be exhausted, and it will most likely run out of cash near the end of October or the beginning of November.
- Presentation
CBO’s Updated Budget Projections
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, to the National Conference of State Legislatures Base Camp.
- Report
Additional Information About the Updated Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031
CBO provides additional detail about its latest baseline projections, which were published on July 1, 2021. The projected deficit for 2021 is $3.0 trillion, $126 billion less than the deficit recorded last year.
- Report
Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, July 2021
CBO projects that if the debt limit is not raised, the Treasury would probably run out of cash and be unable to make its usual payments starting sometime in the first quarter of the next fiscal year, most likely in October or November.
- Presentation
CBO’s Updated Budget and Economic Projections
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, to J.P. Morgan’s Virtual Investor Meeting.
- Presentation
CBO’s Updated Budget and Economic Projections
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, to the American Council for Capital Formation.
- Report
An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031
If current laws generally remain unchanged, the federal budget deficit will total $3.0 trillion and federal debt will reach 103 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2021, CBO estimates, and real GDP will grow by 7.4 percent in calendar year 2021.
- Blog Post
CBO to Release Its Updated Budget and Economic Projections on July 1
CBO will release An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 at 2 p.m. on Thursday, July 1. The report will briefly describe CBO's latest 10-year budget and economic projections. Additional information about those projections will be released on July 21.
- Report
Understanding Federal Estate and Gift Taxes
CBO describes estate and gift taxes, the people who pay them, the types of assets that make up taxable estates, and the model the agency uses to project estate and gift tax revenues in its baseline.