Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Blog Post
Presentation on the Fiscal Outlook
CBO’s Director Phillip Swagel discusses the presentation he gave Thursday on the fiscal outlook at a Federal Bar Association conference.
- Report
Federal Budgetary Effects of the Activities of the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation
CBO estimates that the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation’s (CMMI’s) activities increased federal spending between 2011 and 2020 and will also increase it from 2021 to 2030. In 2010, CBO projected that CMMI would produce savings.
- Report
CBO’s Long-Term Projections of Gross Federal Debt
In response to a request from Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington, CBO provides information about the agency’s long-term projections of gross federal debt. By the end of 2053, such debt is projected to reach 192 percent of GDP.
- Blog Post
Latest Presentations
CBO Director Phillip Swagel discusses his most recent presentations on the U.S. economic and fiscal outlook.
- Report
CBO’s Projections of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts: 2023 to 2033
This report presents CBO’s projections of revenues and outlays for the 2023–2033 period translated into the framework of the national income and product accounts and their categories of current receipts and expenditures.
- Report
Estimates of the Cost of Federal Credit Programs in 2024
CBO estimates the costs of federal credit programs in 2024 in two ways—following procedures prescribed by the Federal Credit Reform Act and using a fair-value approach, which measures the market value of the government’s obligations.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.
- Report
The Economic and Budgetary Effects of Discretionary Funding Caps as Specified in the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023
CBO has estimated what the economic and budgetary effects would be if the discretionary funding caps enacted in June 2023 had been those required under H.R. 2811, the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023.
- Report
CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2023 Update
CBO assesses its two-year and five-year economic forecasts and compares them with forecasts of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus, an average of about 50 private-sector forecasts.
- Report
The 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook
The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO's projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.